Enabling Predictive Maintenance in District Heating Substations: A Labelled Dataset and Fault Detection Evaluation Framework based on Service Data
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2511.14791v1
- Date: Fri, 14 Nov 2025 13:31:24 GMT
- Title: Enabling Predictive Maintenance in District Heating Substations: A Labelled Dataset and Fault Detection Evaluation Framework based on Service Data
- Authors: Cyriana M. A. Roelofs, Edison Guevara Bastidas, Thomas Hugo, Stefan Faulstich, Anna Cadenbach,
- Abstract summary: We present an open source framework combining a service report validated public dataset, an evaluation method based on Accuracy, Reliability, and Earliness, and baseline results implemented with EnergyFaultDetector.<n>The dataset contains time series of operational data from 93 substations across two manufacturers, annotated with a list of disturbances due to faults and maintenance actions.<n>We evaluate the EnergyFaultDetector using three metrics: Accuracy for recognising normal behaviour, an eventwise F Score for reliable fault detection with few false alarms, and Earliness for early detection.
- Score: 0.0
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Early detection of faults in district heating substations is imperative to reduce return temperatures and enhance efficiency. However, progress in this domain has been hindered by the limited availability of public, labelled datasets. We present an open source framework combining a service report validated public dataset, an evaluation method based on Accuracy, Reliability, and Earliness, and baseline results implemented with EnergyFaultDetector, an open source Python framework. The dataset contains time series of operational data from 93 substations across two manufacturers, annotated with a list of disturbances due to faults and maintenance actions, a set of normal-event examples and detailed fault metadata. We evaluate the EnergyFaultDetector using three metrics: Accuracy for recognising normal behaviour, an eventwise F Score for reliable fault detection with few false alarms, and Earliness for early detection. The framework also supports root cause analysis using ARCANA. We demonstrate three use cases to assist operators in interpreting anomalies and identifying underlying faults. The models achieve high normal-behaviour accuracy (0.98) and eventwise F-score (beta=0.5) of 0.83, detecting 60% of the faults in the dataset before the customer reports a problem, with an average lead time of 3.9 days. Integrating an open dataset, metrics, open source code, and baselines establishes a reproducible, fault centric benchmark with operationally meaningful evaluation, enabling consistent comparison and development of early fault detection and diagnosis methods for district heating substations.
Related papers
- Forecasting Anomaly Precursors via Uncertainty-Aware Time-Series Ensembles [9.53248032827498]
We propose FATE (Forecasting Anomalies with Time-series Ensembles), a novel unsupervised framework for detecting Precursors-of-Anomaly (PoA)<n>FATE anticipates future values and leverages ensemble disagreement to signal early signs of potential anomalies without access to target values at inference time.<n>Experiments on five real-world benchmark datasets show that FATE achieves an average improvement of 19.9 percentage points in PTaPR AUC and 20.02 percentage points in early detection F1 score.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-02-19T02:48:09Z) - Revisiting Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values [65.30332997607141]
Missing values are common in real-world time series.<n>Current approaches have developed an imputation-then-prediction framework that uses imputation modules to fill in missing values, followed by forecasting on the imputed data.<n>This framework overlooks a critical issue: there is no ground truth for the missing values, making the imputation process susceptible to errors that can degrade prediction accuracy.<n>We introduce Consistency-Regularized Information Bottleneck (CRIB), a novel framework built on the Information Bottleneck principle.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-27T20:57:48Z) - GRID: Graph-based Reasoning for Intervention and Discovery in Built Environments [0.31096636737010974]
Manual HVAC fault diagnosis in commercial buildings takes 8-12 hours per incident and achieves only 60 percent diagnostic accuracy.<n>We present GRID, a three-stage causal discovery pipeline that combines constraint-based search, neural structural equation modeling, and language model priors to recover directed acyclic graphs.<n>The framework integrates constraint-based methods, neural architectures, and domain-specific language model prompts to address the observational-causal gap in building analytics.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-19T20:19:48Z) - Fault detection and diagnosis for the engine electrical system of a space launcher based on a temporal convolutional autoencoder and calibrated classifiers [0.0]
This paper outlines a first step toward developing an onboard fault detection and diagnostic capability for the next generation of reusable space launchers.<n>Unlike existing approaches in the literature, our solution is designed to meet a broader range of key requirements.<n>The proposed solution is based on a temporal convolutional autoencoder to automatically extract low-dimensional features from raw sensor data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-07-17T11:50:29Z) - PATE: Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation [3.0377067713090633]
Traditional performance metrics assume iid data and fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and specific characteristics of time series anomalies.
We introduce Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation (PATE), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates the temporal relationship between prediction and anomaly intervals.
Our experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of PATE in providing more sensible and accurate evaluations.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-05-20T15:06:36Z) - Self-supervised Feature Adaptation for 3D Industrial Anomaly Detection [59.41026558455904]
We focus on multi-modal anomaly detection. Specifically, we investigate early multi-modal approaches that attempted to utilize models pre-trained on large-scale visual datasets.
We propose a Local-to-global Self-supervised Feature Adaptation (LSFA) method to finetune the adaptors and learn task-oriented representation toward anomaly detection.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-01-06T07:30:41Z) - An Iterative Method for Unsupervised Robust Anomaly Detection Under Data
Contamination [24.74938110451834]
Most deep anomaly detection models are based on learning normality from datasets.
In practice, the normality assumption is often violated due to the nature of real data distributions.
We propose a learning framework to reduce this gap and achieve better normality representation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-09-18T02:36:19Z) - Adaptive Thresholding Heuristic for KPI Anomaly Detection [1.57731592348751]
A plethora of outlier detectors have been explored in the time series domain, however, in a business sense, not all outliers are anomalies of interest.
This article proposes an Adaptive Thresholding Heuristic (ATH) to dynamically adjust the detection threshold based on the local properties of the data distribution and adapt to changes in time series patterns.
Experimental results show that ATH is efficient making it scalable for near real time anomaly detection and flexible with forecasters and outlier detectors.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-08-21T06:45:28Z) - PULL: Reactive Log Anomaly Detection Based On Iterative PU Learning [58.85063149619348]
We propose PULL, an iterative log analysis method for reactive anomaly detection based on estimated failure time windows.
Our evaluation shows that PULL consistently outperforms ten benchmark baselines across three different datasets.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-01-25T16:34:43Z) - Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performance [63.740181251997306]
Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions.
In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data.
We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-01-11T23:01:12Z) - Attentive Prototypes for Source-free Unsupervised Domain Adaptive 3D
Object Detection [85.11649974840758]
3D object detection networks tend to be biased towards the data they are trained on.
We propose a single-frame approach for source-free, unsupervised domain adaptation of lidar-based 3D object detectors.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-11-30T18:42:42Z) - TadGAN: Time Series Anomaly Detection Using Generative Adversarial
Networks [73.01104041298031]
TadGAN is an unsupervised anomaly detection approach built on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)
To capture the temporal correlations of time series, we use LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks as base models for Generators and Critics.
To demonstrate the performance and generalizability of our approach, we test several anomaly scoring techniques and report the best-suited one.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-09-16T15:52:04Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.