A multimodal Transformer for InSAR-based ground deformation forecasting with cross-site generalization across Europe

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23906v1
• Date: Tue, 30 Dec 2025 00:07:36 GMT
• Title: A multimodal Transformer for InSAR-based ground deformation forecasting with cross-site generalization across Europe
• Authors: Wendong Yao, Binhua Huang, Soumyabrata Dev,
• Abstract summary: We propose a patch-based Transformer for single-step, fixed-interval next-epoch nowcasting of displacement maps from EGMS time series.<n>The model ingests recent displacement snapshots together with (i) static kinematic indicators (mean velocity, acceleration, seasonal amplitude) computed in a leakage-safe manner from the training window only.<n>On the eastern Ireland tile (E32N34), the STGCN is strongest in the displacement-only setting, whereas the multimodal Transformer clearly outperforms CNN-LSTM, CNN-LSTM+Attn, and multimodal STGCN.
• Score: 3.3295066998131637
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Near-real-time regional-scale monitoring of ground deformation is increasingly required to support urban planning, critical infrastructure management, and natural hazard mitigation. While Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and continental-scale services such as the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) provide dense observations of past motion, predicting the next observation remains challenging due to the superposition of long-term trends, seasonal cycles, and occasional abrupt discontinuities (e.g., co-seismic steps), together with strong spatial heterogeneity. In this study we propose a multimodal patch-based Transformer for single-step, fixed-interval next-epoch nowcasting of displacement maps from EGMS time series (resampled to a 64x64 grid over 100 km x 100 km tiles). The model ingests recent displacement snapshots together with (i) static kinematic indicators (mean velocity, acceleration, seasonal amplitude) computed in a leakage-safe manner from the training window only, and (ii) harmonic day-of-year encodings. On the eastern Ireland tile (E32N34), the STGCN is strongest in the displacement-only setting, whereas the multimodal Transformer clearly outperforms CNN-LSTM, CNN-LSTM+Attn, and multimodal STGCN when all models receive the same multimodal inputs, achieving RMSE = 0.90 mm and $R^2$ = 0.97 on the test set with the best threshold accuracies.

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