CausalCompass: Evaluating the Robustness of Time-Series Causal Discovery in Misspecified Scenarios

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2602.07915v1
• Date: Sun, 08 Feb 2026 11:27:06 GMT
• Title: CausalCompass: Evaluating the Robustness of Time-Series Causal Discovery in Misspecified Scenarios
• Authors: Huiyang Yi, Xiaojian Shen, Yonggang Wu, Duxin Chen, He Wang, Wenwu Yu,
• Abstract summary: Causal is a benchmark suite designed to assess the robustness of time-series causal discovery methods under violations of modeling assumptions.<n>We conduct extensive benchmarking of representative TSCD algorithms across eight assumption-violation scenarios.<n>The methods exhibiting superior overall performance across diverse scenarios are almost deep learning-based approaches.
• Score: 17.11442807888366
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Causal discovery from time series is a fundamental task in machine learning. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by a reliance on untestable causal assumptions and by the lack of robustness-oriented evaluation in existing benchmarks. To address these challenges, we propose CausalCompass, a flexible and extensible benchmark suite designed to assess the robustness of time-series causal discovery (TSCD) methods under violations of modeling assumptions. To demonstrate the practical utility of CausalCompass, we conduct extensive benchmarking of representative TSCD algorithms across eight assumption-violation scenarios. Our experimental results indicate that no single method consistently attains optimal performance across all settings. Nevertheless, the methods exhibiting superior overall performance across diverse scenarios are almost invariably deep learning-based approaches. We further provide hyperparameter sensitivity analyses to deepen the understanding of these findings. We also find, somewhat surprisingly, that NTS-NOTEARS relies heavily on standardized preprocessing in practice, performing poorly in the vanilla setting but exhibiting strong performance after standardization. Finally, our work aims to provide a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of TSCD methods under assumption violations, thereby facilitating their broader adoption in real-world applications. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/huiyang-yi/CausalCompass.

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