Quantum Attacks Targeting Nuclear Power Plants: Threat Analysis, Defense and Mitigation Strategies

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21524v1
• Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2026 03:26:09 GMT
• Title: Quantum Attacks Targeting Nuclear Power Plants: Threat Analysis, Defense and Mitigation Strategies
• Authors: Yaser Baseri, Edward Waller,
• Abstract summary: This paper introduces a forensics-first framework for achieving quantum resilience in high-consequence environments.<n>We show how Harvest-Now, Decrypt-Later (HNDL) campaigns can retroactively compromise cryptographic foundations, undermine evidence admissibility, and facilitate sophisticated sabotage.<n>We propose and validate a phased, defense-in-depth migration path to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)<n>The paper concludes that without urgent adoption of quantum-resilient controls, the integrity of both physical safety systems and digital forensic evidence remains at severe and irreversible risk.
• Score: 1.2891210250935148
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Abstract: The advent of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) presents a fundamental and existential threat to the forensic integrity and operational safety of Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and Operational Technology (OT) in critical infrastructure. This paper introduces a novel, forensics-first framework for achieving quantum resilience in high-consequence environments, with a specific focus on nuclear power plants. We systematically analyze the quantum threat landscape across the Purdue architecture (L0-L5), detailing how Harvest-Now, Decrypt-Later (HNDL) campaigns, enabled by algorithms like Shor's, can retroactively compromise cryptographic foundations, undermine evidence admissibility, and facilitate sophisticated sabotage. Through two detailed case studies, \textsc{Quantum~Scar} and \textsc{Quantum~Dawn}, we demonstrate multi-phase attack methodologies where state-level adversaries exploit cryptographic monoculture and extended OT lifecycles to degrade safety systems while creating unsolvable forensic paradoxes. Our probabilistic risk modeling reveals alarming success probabilities (up to 78\% for targeted facilities under current defenses), underscoring the criticality of immediate action. In response, we propose and validate a phased, defense-in-depth migration path to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC), integrating hybrid key exchange, cryptographic diversity, secure time synchronization, and side-channel resistant implementations aligned with ISA/IEC 62443 and NIST standards. The paper concludes that without urgent adoption of quantum-resilient controls, the integrity of both physical safety systems and digital forensic evidence remains at severe and irreversible risk.

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