Confidence Before Answering: A Paradigm Shift for Efficient LLM Uncertainty Estimation

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2603.05881v1
• Date: Fri, 06 Mar 2026 04:03:13 GMT
• Title: Confidence Before Answering: A Paradigm Shift for Efficient LLM Uncertainty Estimation
• Abstract summary: Existing methods are predominantly answer-first, producing confidence only after generating an answer.<n>We study a confidence-first paradigm, where the model outputs its confidence before answering, interpreting this score as the model's probability of answering the question correctly.<n>We propose CoCA, a reinforcement learning framework that jointly optimize confidence calibration and answer accuracy via segmented credit assignment.
• Score: 47.91529693614168
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs) requires accurate uncertainty estimation. Existing methods are predominantly answer-first, producing confidence only after generating an answer, which measure the correctness of a specific response and limits practical usability. We study a confidence-first paradigm, where the model outputs its confidence before answering, interpreting this score as the model's probability of answering the question correctly under its current policy. We propose CoCA(Co-optimized Confidence and Answers), a GRPO reinforcement learning framework that jointly optimizes confidence calibration and answer accuracy via segmented credit assignment. By assigning separate rewards and group-relative advantages to confidence and answer segments, CoCA enables stable joint optimization and avoids reward hacking. Experiments across math, code, and factual QA benchmarks show improved calibration and uncertainty discrimination while preserving answer quality, thereby enabling a broader range of downstream applications.

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