Context-Aware Displacement Estimation from Mobile Phone Data: A Methodological Framework

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21457v1
• Date: Thu, 23 Apr 2026 09:14:11 GMT
• Title: Context-Aware Displacement Estimation from Mobile Phone Data: A Methodological Framework
• Abstract summary: Mobile phone data enables near real-time tracking, yet existing approaches apply uniform displacement definitions.<n>We present a methodological framework addressing this through three innovations.<n>The framework produces three complementary metrics scaled to population with uncertainty bounds.
• Score: 1.4634353986656572
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Timely population displacement estimates are critical for humanitarian response during disasters, but traditional surveys and field assessments are slow. Mobile phone data enables near real-time tracking, yet existing approaches apply uniform displacement definitions regardless of individual mobility patterns, misclassifying regular commuters as displaced. We present a methodological framework addressing this through three innovations: (1) mobility profile classification distinguishing local residents from commuter types, (2) context-aware between-municipality displacement detection accounting for expected location by user type and day of week, and (3) operational uncertainty bounds derived from baseline coefficient of variation with a disaster adjustment factor, intended for humanitarian decision support rather than formal statistical inference. The framework produces three complementary metrics scaled to population with uncertainty bounds: displacement rates, origin-destination flows, and return dynamics. An Aparri case study following Super Typhoon Nando (2025, Philippines) applies the framework to vendor-provided daily locations from Globe Telecom. Context-aware detection reduced estimated between-municipality displacement by 1.6-2.7 percentage points on weekdays versus naive methods, attributable to the commuter exception but not independently validated. The method captures between-municipality displacement only. Within-municipality evacuation falls outside scope. The single-case demonstration establishes proof of concept. External validity requires application across multiple events and locations. The framework provides humanitarian actors with operational displacement information while preserving individual privacy through aggregation.

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