The Normalized Maximum Likelihood for Regular Non-Smooth Models: Measure-Theoretic Foundations and Geometric Sampling

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.24477v1
• Date: Sat, 23 May 2026 08:57:48 GMT
• Title: The Normalized Maximum Likelihood for Regular Non-Smooth Models: Measure-Theoretic Foundations and Geometric Sampling
• Abstract summary: We provide a rigorous framework for computing the Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) codelength for non-smooth models.<n>By applying classical geometric measure theory and bridging the coarea formula with conservative Jacobians, we prove that the complexity for non-smooth models is well-posed.<n>Our work paves the way for the theoretical analysis of the NML codelength for regular non-smooth models.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: The Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) codelength, or stochastic complexity, represents a principled criterion for universal coding. While recent coarea-based formulations provided a calculation method for smooth models, this framework collapses for the non-smooth estimators ubiquitous in modern machine learning (e.g., Lasso, Sparse SVMs). In this work, we provide a rigorous framework for computing the NML for regular path-differentiable Lipschitz (PDL) estimators. By applying classical geometric measure theory and bridging the coarea formula with conservative Jacobians, we prove that the stochastic complexity for non-smooth models is well-posed and theoretically consistent with the outputs of modern Automatic Differentiation. To compute this quantity exactly, we introduce the Propose-and-Project Metropolis-Hastings (PDL-PPMH) sampler, a geometric MCMC algorithm capable of traversing the non-differentiable level sets of the maximum likelihood estimator. We theoretically justify its components, including a stochastic tangent space proposal and a provably convergent non-smooth projection solver. We demonstrate the method's robustness by sampling from a high-dimensional Lasso posterior ($P=2000$), while simultaneously quantifying the computational scaling that governs the trade-off between exactness and mixing time. Crucially, we empirically demonstrate that our exact NML criterion provides a highly data-efficient alternative to cross-validation, achieving statistically indistinguishable predictive optima without requiring data splitting. Altogether, our work paves the way for the theoretical analysis of the NML codelength for regular non-smooth models.

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