Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction for Local Coverage

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.24872v1
• Date: Sun, 24 May 2026 05:27:35 GMT
• Title: Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction for Local Coverage
• Abstract summary: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in many-class classification it may still under-cover specific classes or subpopulations.<n>We propose Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction (CFCP), a plug-in framework that adapts conformal prediction to local structure in a learned representation space.
• Score: 7.5841677529906795
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in many-class classification it may still under-cover specific classes or subpopulations, preventing safe deployment in high-stakes applications. We propose Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction (CFCP), a plug-in framework that adapts conformal prediction to local structure in a learned representation space. CFCP clusters learned embeddings, estimates cluster-level label-frequency distributions from calibration data, and for each test point constructs a sample-specific probability vector by softly mixing nearby cluster distributions regularized with global-prior and reliability-aware shrinkage. This vector is then conformalized using standard set constructors. In the disjoint-split regime, CFCP inherits standard finite-sample marginal validity. Under additional assumptions, CFCP further admits a local-validity interpretation. Since representation clusters aggregate locally similar samples, their empirical class frequencies provide a stable estimate of local label ambiguity. Across image and text benchmarks, CFCP achieves the best class coverage in 15/16 dataset/score-family comparisons and a competitive prediction set size efficiency, with several settings substantially more efficient. Overall, our results show that cluster-frequency information provides an effective localized signal for improving classwise reliability in many-class conformal prediction.

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