Context-Conditioned Generative Models Enable Subnational Refinement of Sparse Humanitarian Surveys

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.31489v2
• Date: Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:58:18 GMT
• Title: Context-Conditioned Generative Models Enable Subnational Refinement of Sparse Humanitarian Surveys
• Abstract summary: We evaluate a generative model that learns complex data distributions and can be conditioned on contextual features.<n>We show that context-conditioned generative models can refine sub-national survey distributions under severe data scarcity.
• Score: 0.7943457288167796
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Data scarcity limits inference in many scientific and policy domains. Survey data are essential for decision-making, but sparse samples often fail to capture fine spatial granularities. We evaluate normalizing flows, a generative model that learns complex data distributions and can be conditioned on exogenous contextual features, in controlled data scarcity scenarios. Across eight household survey datasets spanning six low-income or middle-income countries in the humanitarian domain, we show that context-conditioned generative models can refine sub-national survey distributions under severe data scarcity, and that performance increases systematically with the richness of the conditioning information. These findings support a general principle for survey data augmentation: generative models can improve sub-national estimates when the sparse sample retains sufficient support and contextual covariates encode relevant local heterogeneity. By learning full conditional distributions rather than point estimates, the approach provides fine-grained evidence for humanitarian decision-making and resource allocation.

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