Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards and LLM Oversight for Financial Decision-Making
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.03704v1
- Date: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 14:22:07 GMT
- Title: Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards and LLM Oversight for Financial Decision-Making
- Abstract summary: We propose DOSS (Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards), a learning-based selector that directly chooses the decision-relevant objective function at each time point.<n> DOSS formulates objective selection as a classification problem over objectives and performs sequential updates with a rolling window.<n>To mitigate misselection and excessive switching in deployment, DOSS applies confidence-aware gating with a fail-safe that overrides low-confidence proposals to a conservative default and enforces explicit controls tied to switching frequency.
- Score: 33.643275739813056
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Financial decision-making tasks such as stock recommendation and portfolio allocation typically estimate future return and risk and then select trades or allocations for an investor, and the chosen optimization objective often determines realized performance. However, because market conditions evolve over time, a fixed objective can be suboptimal across regimes, while regime-switching pipelines that rely on latent regime estimates can be noisy or delayed and frequent switching can increase turnover and operational instability. In this paper, we propose DOSS (Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards), a learning-based selector that directly chooses the decision-relevant objective function at each time point from interpretable statistical summaries of recent returns, selecting among a small set of candidates (e.g., return-seeking, loss-averse, and risk-adjusted) without introducing intermediate regime variables. DOSS formulates objective selection as a classification problem over objectives and performs sequential updates with a rolling window to make forward-looking selections without temporal leakage, while also outputting a confidence score for each proposal. To mitigate misselection and excessive switching in deployment, DOSS applies confidence-aware gating with a fail-safe that overrides low-confidence proposals to a conservative default and enforces explicit controls tied to switching frequency. We further integrate governance by positioning a Large Language Model (LLM) as an oversight component rather than a generator of new objectives: the LLM is restricted to accept a proposed objective or override it to a predefined safe default, with deterministic rule-based constraints triggering overrides when needed.
Related papers
- Deciding When to Decide: Testing Operational Suboptimality Under Distributional Shift [6.370987174111389]
We propose textttRADAR (Regret-based Assessment of Decision Adequacy and Risk), a decision-focused framework that uses inverse optimization to infer latent preferences.<n>By targeting regret, textttRADAR ignores decision-irrelevant shifts while detecting changes that warrant re-optimization.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-08-29T23:21:36Z) - ResiSpec: Enhancing Multi-Candidate Speculative Sampling via Residual Distribution Shaping [79.1905186547363]
ResiSpec is a framework that strategically reforms the proposal distribution during verification.<n>It prevents candidate obsolescence and achieves up to 1.92$times$ speedup over state-of-the-art multi-candidate methods.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-08-25T11:25:55Z) - STAGE: Controlled Objective Admission for Multi-Preference LLM Alignment [7.5181381447764615]
We propose a stability-guided active-set controller for controlled objective admission.<n>methodname starts from a small active set, retains admitted objectives, and expands when reward-deviation gates indicate low recent deviation or a patience budget is exhausted.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-08-17T13:24:11Z) - Long-Term Sequential Decision Making under Risk [0.0]
We study finite-horizon MDP planning under emphroot-based (resolute) risk objectives that apply a rank-dependent functional to the distribution of total returns.<n>We propose textbfERQDP, an enumeration-free and sampling-free method that solves a rank--quantile surrogate via exact DP.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-07-22T08:44:25Z) - Active Sensing and Deferred-Decision Trajectory Optimization for Robust Target Identification [2.1774928300623615]
Trajectory optimization in mobile sensing systems must identify which member of a finite candidate set is the true target.<n>We propose Active-Sensing DDTO (AS-DDTO), which extends DDTO by adding a trajectory-dependent information-acquisition term to the planning objective.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-06-21T00:09:45Z) - Selective Ensemble Based on Preference-Directed Multi-Objective Bandits [90.75513823660775]
We formalize a sequential decision problem under partially specified linear preferences.<n>We then propose a preference-directed upper confidence bound (PrefUCB) algorithm.<n> Experiments on large pre-trained model selective ensemble tasks and online asset allocation under institutional mandates validate our method.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-06-20T07:52:46Z) - OLIVIA: Online Learning via Inference-time Action Adaptation for Decision Making in LLM ReAct Agents [74.20327254615854]
Large language model agents interleave reasoning, action selection, and observation to solve sequential decision-making tasks.<n>Existing inference-time adaptation methods for LLM agents mainly rely on prompting or retrieval.<n>We propose OLIVIA, an inference-time action adaptation framework for ReAct-style agents.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-05-11T19:28:20Z) - Towards Reliable LLM Evaluation: Correcting the Winner's Curse in Adaptive Benchmarking [40.44372785257615]
We study inference for this procedure-level target under explicit tuning budgets.<n>We propose SIREN, a selection-aware repeated-split reporting protocol.<n>Controlled simulations and MMLU-Pro tuning experiments show that winner-based reporting can be optimistic.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-05-07T10:18:56Z) - GEM: Guided Expectation-Maximization for Behavior-Normalized Candidate Action Selection in Offline RL [7.213487945222728]
We introduce GEM (Guided Expectation-Maximization), an analytical framework that makes action selection both multimodal and controllable.<n>During inference, GEM performs candidate-based selection using a conservative ensemble lower-confidence bound together with behavior-normalized support.<n> Empirically, GEM is competitive across D4RL benchmarks, and offers a simple inference-time budget knob (candidate count) that trades compute for decision quality without retraining.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-03-24T14:04:43Z) - Conformal Thinking: Risk Control for Reasoning on a Compute Budget [60.65072883773352]
Reasoning Large Language Models (LLMs) enable test-time scaling, with dataset-level accuracy improving as the token budget increases.<n>We re-frame the budget setting problem as risk control, limiting the error rate while minimizing compute.<n>Our framework introduces an upper threshold that stops reasoning when the model is confident and a novel lower threshold that preemptively stops unsolvable instances.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-02-03T18:17:22Z) - MAESTRO: Meta-learning Adaptive Estimation of Scalarization Trade-offs for Reward Optimization [56.074760766965085]
Group-Relative Policy Optimization has emerged as an efficient paradigm for aligning Large Language Models (LLMs)<n>We propose MAESTRO, which treats reward scalarization as a dynamic latent policy, leveraging the model's terminal hidden states as a semantic bottleneck.<n>We formulate this as a contextual bandit problem within a bi-level optimization framework, where a lightweight Conductor network co-evolves with the policy by utilizing group-relative advantages as a meta-reward signal.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-01-12T05:02:48Z) - LEC: Linear Expectation Constraints for False-Discovery Control in Selective Prediction and Routing Systems [95.35293543918762]
Large language models (LLMs) often generate unreliable answers, while uncertainty methods fail to fully distinguish correct from incorrect predictions.<n>We address this issue through the lens of false discovery rate (FDR) control, ensuring that among all accepted predictions, the proportion of errors does not exceed a target risk level.<n>We propose LEC, which reinterprets selective prediction as a constrained decision problem by enforcing a Linear Expectation Constraint.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-12-01T11:27:09Z) - AdaSwitch: An Adaptive Switching Meta-Algorithm for Learning-Augmented Bounded-Influence Problems [9.387255955861162]
We study a class of multi-period online decision-making problems with sequence-based predictions.<n>In each period, the decision-maker observes the realized request and must take an irrevocable action that yields a reward or incurs a cost.<n>We introduce a bounded-influence framework, in which past decisions and requests exert only limited impact on the future optimal reward.<n>Within this framework, we propose the AdaSwitch meta-algorithm, which exploits predictions to attain performance close to the offline benchmark when predictions are accurate.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-02T13:26:23Z) - ConstrainedZero: Chance-Constrained POMDP Planning using Learned Probabilistic Failure Surrogates and Adaptive Safety Constraints [34.9739641898452]
This work introduces the ConstrainedZero policy algorithm that solves CC-POMDPs in belief space by learning neural network approximations of the optimal value and policy.
Results show that by separating safety constraints from the objective we can achieve a target level of safety without optimizing the balance between rewards and costs.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-05-01T17:17:22Z) - A Unifying Framework for Online Optimization with Long-Term Constraints [62.35194099438855]
We study online learning problems in which a decision maker has to take a sequence of decisions subject to $m$ long-term constraints.
The goal is to maximize their total reward, while at the same time achieving small cumulative violation across the $T$ rounds.
We present the first best-of-both-world type algorithm for this general class problems, with no-regret guarantees both in the case in which rewards and constraints are selected according to an unknown model, and in the case in which they are selected at each round by an adversary.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-09-15T16:59:19Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.