Land cover and flood type govern the detection limits of satellite-based flood mapping across diverse global flood events

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07780v1
• Date: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18:46:03 GMT
• Title: Land cover and flood type govern the detection limits of satellite-based flood mapping across diverse global flood events
• Abstract summary: Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards, and their increasing frequency under climate change makes satellite-based inundation mapping essential for disaster response.<n> Geospatial foundation models pretrained on satellite offer transferability, but their operational reliability across diverse, unseen events remains uncharacterized.<n>Here we deploy Prithvi-EO-2.0 across 19 out-of-distribution flood events spanning six continents, eight climate zones, and six flood mechanisms, validating against two independent reference products.
• Score: 0.3448975792603021
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards, and their increasing frequency under climate change makes satellite-based inundation mapping essential for disaster response. Geospatial foundation models pretrained on satellite archives offer geographic transferability, but their operational reliability across diverse, unseen events remains uncharacterized. Here we deploy Prithvi-EO-2.0 across 19 out-of-distribution flood events (2017-2025) spanning six continents, eight climate zones, and six flood mechanisms, validating against two independent reference products. Detection accuracy depended jointly on land cover and flood type, with cropland yielding the highest agreement (IoU=52%) and riverine events the strongest detection (F1=0.69), while tree cover and built-up areas showed near-zero detection (IoU=4%) regardless of flood mechanism. Dual-reference validation revealed that apparent model error partly reflects definitional inconsistency between reference products rather than detection failure. Iterative pipeline testing identified 23 failure modes, with pipeline engineering dominating initial error over model capacity. These findings establish environment-dependent detection boundaries for operational satellite flood mapping.

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