Temporal Context Conditioning for Seasonality-Aware Precipitation Nowcasting of High-Intensity Rainfall

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.09959v1
• Date: Mon, 08 Jun 2026 12:28:28 GMT
• Title: Temporal Context Conditioning for Seasonality-Aware Precipitation Nowcasting of High-Intensity Rainfall
• Abstract summary: This paper investigates whether lightweight temporal context can improve radar-based nowcasting, particularly for high-intensity rainfall.<n>Experiments on KNMI radar precipitation data show that temporal conditioning is most beneficial for rare, high-intensity precipitation events.<n>These findings suggest that simple, physically motivated temporal context can improve the realism and reliability of deep learning-based precipitation nowcasts.
• Score: 2.0912407740405903
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting is increasingly being approached with deep learning models that learn directly from recent radar observations. Although such models can efficiently capture short-term precipitation motion, they often lack broader contextual information about the meteorological conditions under which rainfall develops. This paper investigates whether lightweight temporal context can improve radar-based nowcasting, particularly for high-intensity rainfall. We propose the Time-Aware Small-Attention U-Net (TA-SmaAt-UNet), which extends the core SmaAt-UNet model with temporal conditioning layers that use cyclical encodings of time-of-day and time-of-year to modulate intermediate feature representations. Experiments on KNMI radar precipitation data show that temporal conditioning is most beneficial for rare, high-intensity precipitation events, while also improving the representation of seasonal variability and predicted rainfall-intensity distributions. A layer conductance analysis further indicates that the added temporal conditioning layers are actively used by the model despite their small parameter cost. These findings suggest that simple, physically motivated temporal context can improve the realism and reliability of deep learning-based precipitation nowcasts. The implementation of our models and training setup is available on \href{https://github.com/gijsvn/TA-SmaAt-UNet}{GitHub}.

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