Skill-Constrained Model Predictive Control for Resilient Manufacturing Supply Chains

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.17269v1
• Date: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:23:12 GMT
• Title: Skill-Constrained Model Predictive Control for Resilient Manufacturing Supply Chains
• Abstract summary: We study a skill-constrained model predictive controller that solves a finite-horizon mixed-integer program over production, inventory, backlog, and training.<n>We evaluate the controller against production-only and maintenance-only ablations, static cross-training insurance plans, and a strong reactive, under an ex-ante locked configuration and paired statistics.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: In skill-constrained production-inventory systems, the qualified human capacity available tomorrow depends on training decisions made today: production requires certified workers, certifications decay unless maintained, and training consumes the same scarce worker hours that production needs now. We study a closed-loop skill-constrained model predictive controller that, at every shift, solves a finite-horizon mixed-integer program over production, inventory, backlog, and training, with binary predicted certification, hard production eligibility, and an interpretable terminal value that prices certified-capacity gaps at the horizon boundary; only the first-period action is applied before replanning. On synthetic, seed-controlled SkillChain-Gym scenarios - announced and surprise new-skill shocks, demand shocks, absenteeism, forecast- and availability-quality modes, capacity-boundary and training-rate sweeps, and negative controls - we evaluate the controller against production-only and maintenance-only ablations, static cross-training insurance plans, and a strong reactive heuristic, under an ex-ante locked configuration and paired statistics. The result is regime dependence, not superiority: no policy class dominates. Predictive control helps when skill or labor bottlenecks are forecastable early enough for training to complete; lean static insurance remains hard to beat under surprise shocks, near the demand-capacity boundary, and wherever pre-shock slack makes insurance cheap. Attribution ablations separate certification maintenance, re-acquisition of lapsed certifications, and greenfield skill acquisition. Forecastability, not adaptivity per se, decides when predictive control pays.

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