Incumbent Advantage: Brand Bias and Cognitive Manipulation Dynamics in LLM Recommendation Systems
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.17443v1
- Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 02:54:34 GMT
- Title: Incumbent Advantage: Brand Bias and Cognitive Manipulation Dynamics in LLM Recommendation Systems
- Abstract summary: We study brand dynamics in skincare product search recommendations using large language models (LLMs)<n>We find that well-known brands get recommended 100% of the time when all products have the same specifications, but this dominance disappears with less than a +0.1-star rating advantage for a competitor.<n>Our results suggest that generative engine optimization (GEO) should be studied as an emerging marketing practice that shapes market competition.
- Score: 7.25871718341051
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are becoming a major way for consumers to find products, but we do not yet understand how brands compete in this new channel. We study brand dynamics in LLM recommendations using skincare products -- a category where consumers cannot easily judge quality before buying and must rely on brand reputation -- across three commercial LLMs (GPT-4o-mini, Claude Sonnet, Gemini 3 Flash), with a robustness check on search goods. In three experiments, we find: (1) a Conditional Monopoly where well-known brands get recommended 100% of the time (IAI = 10.0) when all products have the same specifications, but this dominance disappears with less than a +0.1-star rating advantage for a competitor; (2) authority-style marketing language, including fabricated clinical-evidence claims, breaks this monopoly at a Bias Surplus Value equal to +0.17 rating points, with each model responding differently; and (3) a social dilemma in multi-brand GEO competition: when all brands adopt the same optimization strategy, individual payoff falls from +0.802 to +0.007 in our payoff proxy, and non-participating brands receive zero recommendations in our tests. Our results suggest that generative engine optimization (GEO) should be studied not only as a security risk, but also as an emerging marketing practice that shapes market competition.
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