ARC: Adaptive Robust Joint State and Covariance Estimation
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.20428v1
- Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:09:50 GMT
- Title: ARC: Adaptive Robust Joint State and Covariance Estimation
- Abstract summary: Sensor measurements are frequently corrupted by outliers and non-Gaussian noise.<n>These imperfections in the sensor data can cause classical state estimators to generate biased and unreliable state and uncertainty estimates.<n>This paper proposes a unified Block-Coordinate Descent framework that combines a norm-aware adaptive robust loss, and an Iteratively Reweighted Least-Squares state update.
- Score: 42.045109659898465
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Sensor measurements are frequently corrupted by outliers and non-Gaussian noise. These imperfections in the sensor data can cause classical state estimators to generate biased and unreliable state and uncertainty estimates. Robust estimators reject or downweight outliers but do not perform measurement covariance estimation, whereas joint state and covariance estimators assume Gaussian residuals and fixed loss shape parameters. Integrating these two capabilities into a single framework is an opportunity to simultaneously estimate both state and covariance in the presence of outliers. This paper proposes a unified Block-Coordinate Descent framework that combines a norm-aware adaptive robust loss, an Iteratively Reweighted Least-Squares state update, and a Minimum Weighted Covariance Determinant covariance estimator, yielding a self-tuning joint state and covariance estimator. The framework is evaluated in a Monte-Carlo simulation and on real-world ultra-wideband localization experiments in cluttered non-line-of-sight environments. Results show that the proposed estimator consistently recovers the true inlier measurement covariance and matches or exceeds the state estimation accuracy of all baselines, without requiring any manual parameter tuning.
Related papers
- Characterizing Heterogeneous Rates in Finite Mixture Estimation via Partial Optimal Transport [88.55403215843967]
Voronoi-based partial optimal transport (VPOT) for obtaining refined local and global convergence guarantees for the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing measure.<n>Results hold in arbitrary fixed dimension without requiring mixing proportions to be uniformly bounded away from zero or prior knowledge of the true number of mixture components.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-09-15T04:32:53Z) - Distributionally Faithful Imputation via Positive Semi-Definite Kernel Density Estimation [55.47411235954028]
We recast imputation under missing completely at random as density estimation from masked observations.<n>We obtain a convex empirical risk problem with closed form marginals, solvable by a Newton interior point method.<n>The resulting PSD Impute model yields both single and multiple imputations from the same fitted density.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-07-08T15:51:05Z) - Not all Jensen-Shannon Divergence Estimators are Equal [38.594313322631216]
We show that different protocols can yield non-comparable values for the Jensen-Shannon divergence.<n>We show that empirical Jensen-Shannon divergence values are inherently protocol-dependent, making explicit specification of the estimation procedure necessary for meaningful comparison.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-06-15T08:49:29Z) - Noise Titration: Exact Distributional Benchmarking for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting [1.5939955861266883]
We propose a paradigm shift toward interventionist, exact-statistical benchmarking.<n>We transform forecasting from a black-box sequence matching game into an exact distributional inference task.<n>We find that state-of-the-art zero-shot models behave consistently with the context-parroting mechanism.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-03-23T17:14:11Z) - CCE: Confidence-Consistency Evaluation for Time Series Anomaly Detection [56.302586730134806]
We introduce Confidence-Consistency Evaluation (CCE), a novel evaluation metric.<n>CCE simultaneously measures prediction confidence and uncertainty consistency.<n>We also establish RankEval, a benchmark for comparing the ranking capabilities of various metrics.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-01T03:38:38Z) - Penalized Empirical Likelihood for Doubly Robust Causal Inference under Contamination in High Dimensions [0.720409153108429]
We propose a doubly robust estimator for the average treatment effect in low sample size equations.<n>We show that the proposed confidence interval remain efficient compared to those competing estimates.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-07-23T11:58:54Z) - A Geometric Unification of Distributionally Robust Covariance Estimators: Shrinking the Spectrum by Inflating the Ambiguity Set [20.166217494056916]
We propose a principled approach to construct covariance estimators without imposing restrictive assumptions.<n>We show that our robust estimators are efficiently computable and consistent.<n> Numerical experiments based on synthetic and real data show that our robust estimators are competitive with state-of-the-art estimators.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-05-30T15:01:18Z) - The Implicit Delta Method [61.36121543728134]
In this paper, we propose an alternative, the implicit delta method, which works by infinitesimally regularizing the training loss of uncertainty.
We show that the change in the evaluation due to regularization is consistent for the variance of the evaluation estimator, even when the infinitesimal change is approximated by a finite difference.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-11-11T19:34:17Z) - Robustness and Accuracy Could Be Reconcilable by (Proper) Definition [109.62614226793833]
The trade-off between robustness and accuracy has been widely studied in the adversarial literature.
We find that it may stem from the improperly defined robust error, which imposes an inductive bias of local invariance.
By definition, SCORE facilitates the reconciliation between robustness and accuracy, while still handling the worst-case uncertainty.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-02-21T10:36:09Z) - The Aleatoric Uncertainty Estimation Using a Separate Formulation with
Virtual Residuals [51.71066839337174]
Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it.
We propose a new separable formulation for the estimation of a signal and of its uncertainty, avoiding the effect of overfitting.
We demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms a state-of-the-art technique for signal and uncertainty estimation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-11-03T12:11:27Z) - Distributionally Robust Local Non-parametric Conditional Estimation [22.423052432220235]
We propose a new distributionally robust estimator that generates non-parametric local estimates.
We show that despite being generally intractable, the local estimator can be efficiently found via convex optimization.
Experiments with synthetic and MNIST datasets show the competitive performance of this new class of estimators.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-10-12T00:11:17Z) - GenDICE: Generalized Offline Estimation of Stationary Values [108.17309783125398]
We show that effective estimation can still be achieved in important applications.
Our approach is based on estimating a ratio that corrects for the discrepancy between the stationary and empirical distributions.
The resulting algorithm, GenDICE, is straightforward and effective.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-02-21T00:27:52Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.