Relational and Sequential Conformal Inference for Energy Time Series over Graphs via Foundation Models

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.31804v1
• Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:22:11 GMT
• Title: Relational and Sequential Conformal Inference for Energy Time Series over Graphs via Foundation Models
• Abstract summary: Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have recently achieved strong performance in point forecasting.<n>We propose STOIC (Spatial-Temporal Graph Conformal Prediction with In-Context Learning), a novel framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with the zero-shot calibration capabilities.<n>We evaluate STOIC on five diverse benchmarks, including synthetic simulations as well as real-world electricity and district heating networks.
• Score: 15.33512070094671
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
• Abstract: Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems. Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have recently achieved strong performance in point forecasting by jointly modeling temporal dynamics and relational dependencies across interconnected energy nodes. However, in real-world energy systems, accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient, as operators also require reliable uncertainty estimates to support risk-aware decision-making, grid stability, and operational planning under uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides a principled and model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with statistical coverage guarantees, making it particularly attractive for safety-critical energy applications. However, existing conformal prediction approaches often fail to fully capture the complex spatial-temporal structure of energy systems. To address these limitations, we propose STOIC (Spatial-Temporal Graph Conformal Prediction with In-Context Learning), a novel framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with the zero-shot calibration capabilities of tabular foundation models. STOIC first generates point forecasts using an STGNN and subsequently reformulates spatial-temporal residuals into a tabular representation suitable for in-context learning. Leveraging a tabular foundation model, STOIC calibrates prediction intervals without task-specific retraining, effectively capturing both sequential and relational dependencies. We evaluate STOIC on five diverse benchmarks, including synthetic simulations as well as real-world electricity and district heating networks. Across all datasets, STOIC consistently outperforms existing conformal prediction baselines, delivering more reliable and robust uncertainty estimates for complex graph-structured energy time series.

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