Calibrated Prediction with Covariate Shift via Unsupervised Domain Adaptation

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.00343v2
• Date: Thu, 21 May 2020 03:09:26 GMT
• Title: Calibrated Prediction with Covariate Shift via Unsupervised Domain Adaptation
• Authors: Sangdon Park, Osbert Bastani, James Weimer, Insup Lee
• Abstract summary: Uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. Existing algorithms can overestimate certainty, possibly yielding a false sense of confidence in the predictive model.
• Score: 25.97333838935589
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of covariate shift--i.e., where the real-world data distribution may differ from the training distribution. As a consequence, existing algorithms can overestimate certainty, possibly yielding a false sense of confidence in the predictive model. We propose an algorithm for calibrating predictions that accounts for the possibility of covariate shift, given labeled examples from the training distribution and unlabeled examples from the real-world distribution. Our algorithm uses importance weighting to correct for the shift from the training to the real-world distribution. However, importance weighting relies on the training and real-world distributions to be sufficiently close. Building on ideas from domain adaptation, we additionally learn a feature map that tries to equalize these two distributions. In an empirical evaluation, we show that our proposed approach outperforms existing approaches to calibrated prediction when there is covariate shift.

Related papers

• Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty via Inference-Time Sampling [57.749601811982096]
  We propose a post-hoc sampling strategy for estimating predictive uncertainty accounting for data ambiguity. The method can generate different plausible outputs for a given input and does not assume parametric forms of predictive distributions.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-08-03T12:43:21Z)
• Calibrated Selective Classification [34.08454890436067]
  We develop a new approach to selective classification in which we propose a method for rejecting examples with "uncertain" uncertainties. We present a framework for learning selectively calibrated models, where a separate selector network is trained to improve the selective calibration error of a given base model. We demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our approach on multiple image classification and lung cancer risk assessment tasks.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-08-25T13:31:09Z)
• Fairness Transferability Subject to Bounded Distribution Shift [5.62716254065607]
  Given an algorithmic predictor that is "fair" on some source distribution, will it still be fair on an unknown target distribution that differs from the source within some bound? We study the transferability of statistical group fairness for machine learning predictors subject to bounded distribution shifts.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-05-31T22:16:44Z)
• Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performance [63.740181251997306]
  Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-01-11T23:01:12Z)
• Predicting with Confidence on Unseen Distributions [90.68414180153897]
  We connect domain adaptation and predictive uncertainty literature to predict model accuracy on challenging unseen distributions. We find that the difference of confidences (DoC) of a classifier's predictions successfully estimates the classifier's performance change over a variety of shifts. We specifically investigate the distinction between synthetic and natural distribution shifts and observe that despite its simplicity DoC consistently outperforms other quantifications of distributional difference.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-07-07T15:50:18Z)
• PAC Prediction Sets Under Covariate Shift [40.67733209235852]
  Uncertainty is important when there are changes to the underlying data distribution. Most existing uncertainty quantification algorithms break down in the presence of such shifts. We propose a novel approach that addresses this challenge by constructing emphprobably approximately correct (PAC) prediction sets.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-06-17T23:28:42Z)
• Learning Calibrated Uncertainties for Domain Shift: A Distributionally Robust Learning Approach [150.8920602230832]
  We propose a framework for learning calibrated uncertainties under domain shifts. In particular, the density ratio estimation reflects the closeness of a target (test) sample to the source (training) distribution. We show that our proposed method generates calibrated uncertainties that benefit downstream tasks.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-10-08T02:10:54Z)
• Estimating Generalization under Distribution Shifts via Domain-Invariant Representations [75.74928159249225]
  We use a set of domain-invariant predictors as a proxy for the unknown, true target labels. The error of the resulting risk estimate depends on the target risk of the proxy model.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-07-06T17:21:24Z)
• Unlabelled Data Improves Bayesian Uncertainty Calibration under Covariate Shift [100.52588638477862]
  We develop an approximate Bayesian inference scheme based on posterior regularisation. We demonstrate the utility of our method in the context of transferring prognostic models of prostate cancer across globally diverse populations.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-06-26T13:50:19Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.