Getting a CLUE: A Method for Explaining Uncertainty Estimates

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.06848v2
• Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2021 11:26:59 GMT
• Title: Getting a CLUE: A Method for Explaining Uncertainty Estimates
• Authors: Javier Antor\'an, Umang Bhatt, Tameem Adel, Adrian Weller, Jos\'e Miguel Hern\'andez-Lobato
• Abstract summary: We propose a novel method for interpreting uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models. Our method, Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUE), indicates how to change an input, while keeping it on the data manifold.
• Score: 30.367995696223726
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for interpreting uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, like Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). Our method, Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUE), indicates how to change an input, while keeping it on the data manifold, such that a BNN becomes more confident about the input's prediction. We validate CLUE through 1) a novel framework for evaluating counterfactual explanations of uncertainty, 2) a series of ablation experiments, and 3) a user study. Our experiments show that CLUE outperforms baselines and enables practitioners to better understand which input patterns are responsible for predictive uncertainty.

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