Forecasting: theory and practice
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2012.03854v4
- Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 20:08:32 GMT
- Title: Forecasting: theory and practice
- Authors: Fotios Petropoulos, Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos,
Mohamed Zied Babai, Devon K. Barrow, Souhaib Ben Taieb, Christoph Bergmeir,
Ricardo J. Bessa, Jakub Bijak, John E. Boylan, Jethro Browell, Claudio
Carnevale, Jennifer L. Castle, Pasquale Cirillo, Michael P. Clements, Clara
Cordeiro, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira, Shari De Baets, Alexander
Dokumentov, Joanne Ellison, Piotr Fiszeder, Philip Hans Franses, David T.
Frazier, Michael Gilliland, M. Sinan G\"on\"ul, Paul Goodwin, Luigi Grossi,
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Mariangela Guidolin, Massimo Guidolin, Ulrich Gunter,
Xiaojia Guo, Renato Guseo, Nigel Harvey, David F. Hendry, Ross Hollyman, Tim
Januschowski, Jooyoung Jeon, Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yanfei Kang, Anne B.
Koehler, Stephan Kolassa, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Sonia Leva, Feng Li,
Konstantia Litsiou, Spyros Makridakis, Gael M. Martin, Andrew B. Martinez,
Sheik Meeran, Theodore Modis, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Dilek \"Onkal,
Alessia Paccagnini, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Ioannis Panapakidis, Jose M.
Pav\'ia, Manuela Pedio, Diego J. Pedregal, Pierre Pinson, Patr\'icia Ramos,
David E. Rapach, J. James Reade, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, Micha{\l} Rubaszek,
Georgios Sermpinis, Han Lin Shang, Evangelos Spiliotis, Aris A. Syntetos,
Priyanga Dilini Talagala, Thiyanga S. Talagala, Len Tashman, Dimitrios
Thomakos, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Ezio Todini, Juan Ram\'on Trapero Arenas,
Xiaoqian Wang, Robert L. Winkler, Alisa Yusupova, Florian Ziel
- Abstract summary: This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting.
We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches.
We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts.
- Score: 65.71277206849244
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning.
The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging,
with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise
utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set
of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a
non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide
an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods,
principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate
forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a
variety of real-life contexts.
We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and
applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a
point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last
decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and
practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is
non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through
the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications
covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and
publicly-available databases.
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