Predicting Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality with A.I.-based Gleason Grading

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2012.05197v1
• Date: Wed, 25 Nov 2020 02:05:24 GMT
• Title: Predicting Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality with A.I.-based Gleason Grading
• Authors: Ellery Wulczyn, Kunal Nagpal, Matthew Symonds, Melissa Moran, Markus Plass, Robert Reihs, Farah Nader, Fraser Tan, Yuannan Cai, Trissia Brown, Isabelle Flament-Auvigne, Mahul B. Amin, Martin C. Stumpe, Heimo Muller, Peter Regitnig, Andreas Holzinger, Greg S. Corrado, Lily H. Peng, Po-Hsuan Cameron Chen, David F. Steiner, Kurt Zatloukal, Yun Liu, Craig H. Mermel
• Abstract summary: We developed a system to predict prostate-cancer specific mortality via A.I.-based Gleason grading. We evaluated its ability to risk-stratify patients on an independent retrospective cohort of 2,807 prostatectomy cases.
• Score: 2.752534470219667
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Gleason grading of prostate cancer is an important prognostic factor but suffers from poor reproducibility, particularly among non-subspecialist pathologists. Although artificial intelligence (A.I.) tools have demonstrated Gleason grading on-par with expert pathologists, it remains an open question whether A.I. grading translates to better prognostication. In this study, we developed a system to predict prostate-cancer specific mortality via A.I.-based Gleason grading and subsequently evaluated its ability to risk-stratify patients on an independent retrospective cohort of 2,807 prostatectomy cases from a single European center with 5-25 years of follow-up (median: 13, interquartile range 9-17). The A.I.'s risk scores produced a C-index of 0.84 (95%CI 0.80-0.87) for prostate cancer-specific mortality. Upon discretizing these risk scores into risk groups analogous to pathologist Grade Groups (GG), the A.I. had a C-index of 0.82 (95%CI 0.78-0.85). On the subset of cases with a GG in the original pathology report (n=1,517), the A.I.'s C-indices were 0.87 and 0.85 for continuous and discrete grading, respectively, compared to 0.79 (95%CI 0.71-0.86) for GG obtained from the reports. These represent improvements of 0.08 (95%CI 0.01-0.15) and 0.07 (95%CI 0.00-0.14) respectively. Our results suggest that A.I.-based Gleason grading can lead to effective risk-stratification and warrants further evaluation for improving disease management.

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