Challenges in the application of a mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients on an Indian cohort

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2101.07215v1
• Date: Fri, 15 Jan 2021 07:06:49 GMT
• Title: Challenges in the application of a mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients on an Indian cohort
• Authors: Yukti Makhija (1), Samarth Bhatia (1), Shalendra Singh (2), Sneha Kumar Jayaswal (1), Prabhat Singh Malik (3), Pallavi Gupta (4), Shreyas N. Samaga (1), Shreya Johri (1), Sri Krishna Venigalla (2), Rabi Narayan Hota (2), Surinder Singh Bhatia (5), Ishaan Gupta (1) ((1) Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, (2) Armed forces Medical College Pune, (3) All India Institute of Medical Sciences Delhi, (4) Indian institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, (5) DGAFMS office Ministry of Defence Delhi)
• Abstract summary: Yan et al. 1 have published a research that uses Machine learning (ML) methods to predict the outcome of COVID-19 patients. Here, we show the limitations of this model by deploying it on one of the largest datasets of COVID-19 patients.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Many countries are now experiencing the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic straining the healthcare resources with an acute shortage of hospital beds and ventilators for the critically ill patients. This situation is especially worse in India with the second largest load of COVID-19 cases and a relatively resource-scarce medical infrastructure. Therefore, it becomes essential to triage the patients based on the severity of their disease and devote resources towards critically ill patients. Yan et al. 1 have published a very pertinent research that uses Machine learning (ML) methods to predict the outcome of COVID-19 patients based on their clinical parameters at the day of admission. They used the XGBoost algorithm, a type of ensemble model, to build the mortality prediction model. The final classifier is built through the sequential addition of multiple weak classifiers. The clinically operable decision rule was obtained from a 'single-tree XGBoost' and used lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), lymphocyte and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) values. This decision tree achieved a 100% survival prediction and 81% mortality prediction. However, these models have several technical challenges and do not provide an out of the box solution that can be deployed for other populations as has been reported in the "Matters Arising" section of Yan et al. Here, we show the limitations of this model by deploying it on one of the largest datasets of COVID-19 patients containing detailed clinical parameters collected from India.

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