SENTINEL: Taming Uncertainty with Ensemble-based Distributional
Reinforcement Learning
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2102.11075v1
- Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2021 14:45:39 GMT
- Title: SENTINEL: Taming Uncertainty with Ensemble-based Distributional
Reinforcement Learning
- Authors: Hannes Eriksson, Debabrota Basu, Mina Alibeigi, Christos Dimitrakakis
- Abstract summary: We consider risk-sensitive sequential decision-making in model-based reinforcement learning (RL)
We introduce a novel quantification of risk, namely emphcomposite risk
We experimentally verify that SENTINEL-K estimates the return distribution better, and while used with composite risk estimate, demonstrates better risk-sensitive performance than competing RL algorithms.
- Score: 6.587644069410234
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: In this paper, we consider risk-sensitive sequential decision-making in
model-based reinforcement learning (RL).
We introduce a novel quantification of risk, namely \emph{composite risk},
which takes into account both aleatory and epistemic risk during the learning
process.
Previous works have considered aleatory or epistemic risk individually, or,
an additive combination of the two.
We demonstrate that the additive formulation is a particular case of the
composite risk, which underestimates the actual CVaR risk even while learning a
mixture of Gaussians.
In contrast, the composite risk provides a more accurate estimate.
We propose to use a bootstrapping method, SENTINEL-K, for distributional RL.
SENTINEL-K uses an ensemble of $K$ learners to estimate the return distribution
and additionally uses follow the regularized leader (FTRL) from bandit
literature for providing a better estimate of the risk on the return
distribution.
Finally, we experimentally verify that SENTINEL-K estimates the return
distribution better, and while used with composite risk estimate, demonstrates
better risk-sensitive performance than competing RL algorithms.
Related papers
- Data-driven decision-making under uncertainty with entropic risk measure [5.407319151576265]
The entropic risk measure is widely used in high-stakes decision making to account for tail risks associated with an uncertain loss.
To debias the empirical entropic risk estimator, we propose a strongly consistent bootstrapping procedure.
We show that cross validation methods can result in significantly higher out-of-sample risk for the insurer if the bias in validation performance is not corrected for.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-09-30T04:02:52Z) - Provable Risk-Sensitive Distributional Reinforcement Learning with
General Function Approximation [54.61816424792866]
We introduce a general framework on Risk-Sensitive Distributional Reinforcement Learning (RS-DisRL), with static Lipschitz Risk Measures (LRM) and general function approximation.
We design two innovative meta-algorithms: textttRS-DisRL-M, a model-based strategy for model-based function approximation, and textttRS-DisRL-V, a model-free approach for general value function approximation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-02-28T08:43:18Z) - Extreme Risk Mitigation in Reinforcement Learning using Extreme Value
Theory [10.288413564829579]
A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk events (rewards) that could potentially lead to catastrophic outcomes.
While risk-aware RL techniques do exist, their level of risk aversion heavily relies on the precision of the state-action value function estimation.
Our work proposes to enhance the resilience of RL agents when faced with very rare and risky events by focusing on refining the predictions of the extreme values predicted by the state-action value function distribution.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-08-24T18:23:59Z) - Is Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning Properly Resolved? [32.42976780682353]
We propose a novel algorithm, namely Trajectory Q-Learning (TQL), for RSRL problems with provable convergence to the optimal policy.
Based on our new learning architecture, we are free to introduce a general and practical implementation for different risk measures to learn disparate risk-sensitive policies.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-07-02T11:47:21Z) - Safe Deployment for Counterfactual Learning to Rank with Exposure-Based
Risk Minimization [63.93275508300137]
We introduce a novel risk-aware Counterfactual Learning To Rank method with theoretical guarantees for safe deployment.
Our experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed method, which is effective at avoiding initial periods of bad performance when little data is available.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-04-26T15:54:23Z) - Policy Evaluation in Distributional LQR [70.63903506291383]
We provide a closed-form expression of the distribution of the random return.
We show that this distribution can be approximated by a finite number of random variables.
Using the approximate return distribution, we propose a zeroth-order policy gradient algorithm for risk-averse LQR.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-03-23T20:27:40Z) - Risk-Averse Reinforcement Learning via Dynamic Time-Consistent Risk
Measures [10.221369785560785]
In this paper, we consider the problem of maximizing dynamic risk of a sequence of rewards in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs)
Using a convex combination of expectation and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a special one-step conditional risk measure, we reformulate the risk-averse MDP as a risk-neutral counterpart with augmented action space and manipulation on the immediate rewards.
Our numerical studies show that the risk-averse setting can reduce the variance and enhance robustness of the results.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-01-14T21:43:18Z) - RASR: Risk-Averse Soft-Robust MDPs with EVaR and Entropic Risk [28.811725782388688]
We propose and analyze a new framework to jointly model the risk associated with uncertainties in finite-horizon and discounted infinite-horizon MDPs.
We show that when the risk-aversion is defined using either EVaR or the entropic risk, the optimal policy in RASR can be computed efficiently using a new dynamic program formulation with a time-dependent risk level.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-09-09T00:34:58Z) - Efficient Risk-Averse Reinforcement Learning [79.61412643761034]
In risk-averse reinforcement learning (RL), the goal is to optimize some risk measure of the returns.
We prove that under certain conditions this inevitably leads to a local-optimum barrier, and propose a soft risk mechanism to bypass it.
We demonstrate improved risk aversion in maze navigation, autonomous driving, and resource allocation benchmarks.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-05-10T19:40:52Z) - Risk-Constrained Thompson Sampling for CVaR Bandits [82.47796318548306]
We consider a popular risk measure in quantitative finance known as the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)
We explore the performance of a Thompson Sampling-based algorithm CVaR-TS under this risk measure.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-11-16T15:53:22Z) - Learning Bounds for Risk-sensitive Learning [86.50262971918276]
In risk-sensitive learning, one aims to find a hypothesis that minimizes a risk-averse (or risk-seeking) measure of loss.
We study the generalization properties of risk-sensitive learning schemes whose optimand is described via optimized certainty equivalents.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-06-15T05:25:02Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.