Learning Causal Relationships from Conditional Moment Conditions by
Importance Weighting
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.01312v1
- Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2021 06:07:07 GMT
- Title: Learning Causal Relationships from Conditional Moment Conditions by
Importance Weighting
- Authors: Masahiro Kato and Haruo Kakehi and Kenichiro McAlinn and Shota Yasui
- Abstract summary: We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment conditions.
conditional moment conditions pose serious challenges for causal inference in high-dimensional settings.
We propose a method that transforms conditional moment conditions to unconditional moment conditions.
- Score: 11.326695040991192
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment
conditions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment conditions,
conditional moment conditions pose serious challenges for causal inference,
especially in complex, high-dimensional settings. To address this issue, we
propose a method that transforms conditional moment conditions to unconditional
moment conditions through importance weighting using the conditional density
ratio. Then, using this transformation, we propose a method that successfully
approximates conditional moment conditions. Our proposed approach allows us to
employ methods for estimating causal parameters from unconditional moment
conditions, such as generalized method of moments, adequately in a
straightforward manner. In experiments, we confirm that our proposed method
performs well compared to existing methods.
Related papers
- Chain of Condition: Construct, Verify and Solve Conditions for Conditional Question Answering [34.599299893060895]
Conditional question answering (CQA) is an important task that aims to find probable answers and identify missing conditions.
Existing approaches struggle with CQA due to two challenges: (1) precisely identifying necessary conditions and the logical relationship, and (2) verifying conditions to detect any that are missing.
We propose a novel prompting approach, Chain of condition, by first identifying all conditions and constructing their logical relationships explicitly according to the document.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-08-10T05:09:11Z) - Probabilistic Conformal Prediction with Approximate Conditional Validity [81.30551968980143]
We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution.
Our method consistently outperforms existing approaches in terms of conditional coverage.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-07-01T20:44:48Z) - User-defined Event Sampling and Uncertainty Quantification in Diffusion
Models for Physical Dynamical Systems [49.75149094527068]
We show that diffusion models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems.
We develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases.
We are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-06-13T03:42:03Z) - Resilient Constrained Learning [94.27081585149836]
This paper presents a constrained learning approach that adapts the requirements while simultaneously solving the learning task.
We call this approach resilient constrained learning after the term used to describe ecological systems that adapt to disruptions by modifying their operation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-06-04T18:14:18Z) - Minimax Instrumental Variable Regression and $L_2$ Convergence
Guarantees without Identification or Closedness [71.42652863687117]
We study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions.
We propose a new penalized minimax estimator that can converge to a fixed IV solution.
We derive a strong $L$ error rate for our estimator under lax conditions.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-02-10T18:08:49Z) - Convergence and Optimality of Policy Gradient Methods in Weakly Smooth
Settings [17.437408088239142]
We establish explicit convergence rates of policy gradient methods without relying on opaque conditions.
We also characterize the sufficiency conditions for the ergodicity of near-linear MDPs.
We provide conditions and analysis for optimality of the converged policies.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-10-30T06:31:01Z) - Situated Conditional Reasoning [10.828616610785524]
We show that situation-based conditionals can be described in terms of a set of postulates.
We then define a form of entailment for situated conditional knowledge bases, which we refer to as minimal closure.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-09-03T14:23:18Z) - A geometric approach to conditioning belief functions [7.655239948659381]
We propose an approach to the conditioning of belief functions based on geometrically projecting them onto the simplex associated with the conditioning event in the space of all belief functions.
We show here that such a geometric approach to conditioning often produces simple results with straightforward interpretations in terms of degrees of belief.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-04-21T17:24:19Z) - The Variational Method of Moments [65.91730154730905]
conditional moment problem is a powerful formulation for describing structural causal parameters in terms of observables.
Motivated by a variational minimax reformulation of OWGMM, we define a very general class of estimators for the conditional moment problem.
We provide algorithms for valid statistical inference based on the same kind of variational reformulations.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-12-17T07:21:06Z) - Composing Normalizing Flows for Inverse Problems [89.06155049265641]
We propose a framework for approximate inference that estimates the target conditional as a composition of two flow models.
Our method is evaluated on a variety of inverse problems and is shown to produce high-quality samples with uncertainty.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-02-26T19:01:11Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.