Uncertainty Quantification in Neural Differential Equations
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2111.04207v1
- Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2021 00:09:39 GMT
- Title: Uncertainty Quantification in Neural Differential Equations
- Authors: Olga Graf, Pablo Flores, Pavlos Protopapas, Karim Pichara
- Abstract summary: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge.
We adapt several state-of-the-art UQ methods to get the predictive uncertainty for DE solutions.
- Score: 3.291910356217187
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based
on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage
of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods
that can make deep models more reliable has increased as well. Among
applications that can benefit from effective handling of uncertainty are the
deep learning based differential equation (DE) solvers. We adapt several
state-of-the-art UQ methods to get the predictive uncertainty for DE solutions
and show the results on four different DE types.
Related papers
- Using Uncertainty Quantification to Characterize and Improve Out-of-Domain Learning for PDEs [44.890946409769924]
Neural Operators (NOs) have emerged as particularly promising quantification.
We show that ensembling several NOs can identify high-error regions and provide good uncertainty estimates.
We then introduce Operator-ProbConserv, a method that uses these well-calibrated UQ estimates within the ProbConserv framework to update the model.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-03-15T19:21:27Z) - Uncertainty Quantification for Forward and Inverse Problems of PDEs via
Latent Global Evolution [110.99891169486366]
We propose a method that integrates efficient and precise uncertainty quantification into a deep learning-based surrogate model.
Our method endows deep learning-based surrogate models with robust and efficient uncertainty quantification capabilities for both forward and inverse problems.
Our method excels at propagating uncertainty over extended auto-regressive rollouts, making it suitable for scenarios involving long-term predictions.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-02-13T11:22:59Z) - Uncertainty quantification for deep learning-based schemes for solving
high-dimensional backward stochastic differential equations [5.883258964010963]
We study uncertainty quantification (UQ) for a class of deep learning-based BSDE schemes.
We develop a UQ model that efficiently estimates the STD of the approximate solution using only a single run of the algorithm.
Our numerical experiments show that the UQ model produces reliable estimates of the mean and STD of the approximate solution.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-10-05T09:00:48Z) - A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Deep Learning [7.102893202197349]
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) aims to estimate the confidence of DNN predictions beyond prediction accuracy.
This paper presents a systematic taxonomy of UQ methods for DNNs based on the types of uncertainty sources.
We show how our taxonomy of UQ methodologies can potentially help guide the choice of UQ method in different machine learning problems.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-02-26T22:30:08Z) - Quantifying Uncertainty in Deep Spatiotemporal Forecasting [67.77102283276409]
We describe two types of forecasting problems: regular grid-based and graph-based.
We analyze UQ methods from both the Bayesian and the frequentist point view, casting in a unified framework via statistical decision theory.
Through extensive experiments on real-world road network traffic, epidemics, and air quality forecasting tasks, we reveal the statistical computational trade-offs for different UQ methods.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-05-25T14:35:46Z) - Multivariate Deep Evidential Regression [77.34726150561087]
A new approach with uncertainty-aware neural networks shows promise over traditional deterministic methods.
We discuss three issues with a proposed solution to extract aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties from regression-based neural networks.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-04-13T12:20:18Z) - Fast Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Object Pose Estimation [91.09217713805337]
Deep learning-based object pose estimators are often unreliable and overconfident.
In this work, we propose a simple, efficient, and plug-and-play UQ method for 6-DoF object pose estimation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-11-16T06:51:55Z) - Cross Learning in Deep Q-Networks [82.20059754270302]
We propose a novel cross Q-learning algorithm, aim at alleviating the well-known overestimation problem in value-based reinforcement learning methods.
Our algorithm builds on double Q-learning, by maintaining a set of parallel models and estimate the Q-value based on a randomly selected network.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-09-29T04:58:17Z) - Uncertainty Quantification Using Neural Networks for Molecular Property
Prediction [33.34534208450156]
We systematically evaluate several methods on five benchmark datasets using multiple complementary performance metrics.
None of the methods we tested is unequivocally superior to all others, and none produces a particularly reliable ranking of errors across multiple datasets.
We conclude with a practical recommendation as to which existing techniques seem to perform well relative to others.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-05-20T13:31:20Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.