An Emulation Framework for Fire Front Spread

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2203.12160v1
• Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 03:07:10 GMT
• Title: An Emulation Framework for Fire Front Spread
• Authors: Andrew Bolt, Joel Janek Dabrowski, Carolyn Huston, Petra Kuhnert
• Abstract summary: Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. We use machine learning to drive the emulation approach for bushfires. We show that emulation has the capacity to closely reproduce simulated fire-front data.
• Score: 0.9940728137241214
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread models, which can be used to generate simulations. We use machine learning to drive the emulation approach for bushfires and show that emulation has the capacity to closely reproduce simulated fire-front data. We present a preliminary emulator approach with the capacity for fast emulation of complex simulations. Large numbers of predictions can then be generated as part of ensemble estimation techniques, which provide more robust and reliable forecasts of stochastic systems.

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