Agent-based Simulation of District-based Elections
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2205.14400v2
- Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2023 18:12:11 GMT
- Title: Agent-based Simulation of District-based Elections
- Authors: Adway Mitra
- Abstract summary: In district-based elections, electors cast votes in their respective districts.
In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the corresponding seat in the governing body.
The election result is based on the number of seats won by different parties.
- Score: 0.5076419064097732
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: In district-based elections, electors cast votes in their respective
districts. In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the
corresponding seat in the governing body. The election result is based on the
number of seats won by different parties. In this system, locations of electors
across the districts may severely affect the election result even if the total
number of votes obtained by different parties remains unchanged. A less popular
party may end up winning more seats if their supporters are suitably
distributed spatially. This happens due to various regional and social
influences on individual voters which modulate their voting choice. In this
paper, we explore agent-based models for district-based elections, where we
consider each elector as an agent, and try to represent their social and
geographical attributes and political inclinations using probability
distributions. This model can be used to simulate election results by Monte
Carlo sampling. The models allow us to explore the full space of possible
outcomes of an electoral setting, though they can also be calibrated to actual
election results for suitable values of parameters. We use Approximate Bayesian
Computation (ABC) framework to estimate model parameters. We show that our
model can reproduce the results of elections held in India and USA, and can
also produce counterfactual scenarios.
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