Expected Frequency Matrices of Elections: Computation, Geometry, and
Preference Learning
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2205.07831v1
- Date: Mon, 16 May 2022 17:40:22 GMT
- Title: Expected Frequency Matrices of Elections: Computation, Geometry, and
Preference Learning
- Authors: Niclas Boehmer, Robert Bredereck, Edith Elkind, Piotr Faliszewski,
Stanis{\l}aw Szufa
- Abstract summary: We use the "map of elections" approach of Szufa et al. (AAMAS 2020) to analyze several well-known vote distributions.
We draw the "skeleton map" of distributions, evaluate its robustness, and analyze its properties.
- Score: 58.23459346724491
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: We use the "map of elections" approach of Szufa et al. (AAMAS 2020) to
analyze several well-known vote distributions. For each of them, we give an
explicit formula or an efficient algorithm for computing its frequency matrix,
which captures the probability that a given candidate appears in a given
position in a sampled vote. We use these matrices to draw the "skeleton map" of
distributions, evaluate its robustness, and analyze its properties. We further
use them to identify the nature of several real-world elections.
Related papers
- LLM Generated Distribution-Based Prediction of US Electoral Results, Part I [0.0]
This paper introduces distribution-based prediction, a novel approach to using Large Language Models (LLMs) as predictive tools.
We demonstrate the use of distribution-based prediction in the context of recent United States presidential election.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-11-05T20:10:25Z) - ElectionSim: Massive Population Election Simulation Powered by Large Language Model Driven Agents [70.17229548653852]
We introduce ElectionSim, an innovative election simulation framework based on large language models.
We present a million-level voter pool sampled from social media platforms to support accurate individual simulation.
We also introduce PPE, a poll-based presidential election benchmark to assess the performance of our framework under the U.S. presidential election scenario.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-10-28T05:25:50Z) - Ahead of the Count: An Algorithm for Probabilistic Prediction of Instant Runoff (IRV) Elections [0.0]
We introduce a novel algorithm designed to predict outcomes in Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) elections.
The algorithm takes as input a set of discrete probability distributions describing vote totals for each candidate ranking.
We calculate all possible sequences of eliminations that might occur in the IRV rounds and assign a probability to each.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-05-15T00:25:51Z) - Adaptively Weighted Audits of Instant-Runoff Voting Elections: AWAIRE [61.872917066847855]
Methods for auditing instant-runoff voting (IRV) elections are either not risk-limiting or require cast vote records (CVRs), the voting system's electronic record of the votes on each ballot.
We develop an RLA method that uses adaptively weighted averages of test supermartingales to efficiently audit IRV elections when CVRs are not available.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-07-20T15:55:34Z) - Approximating a RUM from Distributions on k-Slates [88.32814292632675]
We find a generalization-time algorithm that finds the RUM that best approximates the given distribution on average.
Our theoretical result can also be made practical: we obtain a that is effective and scales to real-world datasets.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-05-22T17:43:34Z) - Data as voters: instance selection using approval-based multi-winner voting [1.597617022056624]
We present a novel approach to the instance selection problem in machine learning (or data mining)
In our model, instances play a double role as voters and candidates.
For SVMs, we have obtained slight increases in the average accuracy by using several voting rules that satisfy EJR or PJR.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-04-19T22:00:23Z) - Novelty Detection for Election Fraud: A Case Study with Agent-Based
Simulation Data [6.692240192392746]
We generate a clean election results dataset without fraud as well as datasets with varying degrees of fraud.
The algorithm determines how similar actual election results are as compared to the predicted results from polling.
We show both the effectiveness of the simulation technique and the machine learning model in its success in identifying fraudulent regions.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-11-29T08:46:36Z) - Agent-based Simulation of District-based Elections [0.5076419064097732]
In district-based elections, electors cast votes in their respective districts.
In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the corresponding seat in the governing body.
The election result is based on the number of seats won by different parties.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-05-28T11:19:04Z) - Estimating leverage scores via rank revealing methods and randomization [50.591267188664666]
We study algorithms for estimating the statistical leverage scores of rectangular dense or sparse matrices of arbitrary rank.
Our approach is based on combining rank revealing methods with compositions of dense and sparse randomized dimensionality reduction transforms.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-05-23T19:21:55Z) - Uncertainty Estimation and Sample Selection for Crowd Counting [87.29137075538213]
We present a method for image-based crowd counting that can predict a crowd density map together with the uncertainty values pertaining to the predicted density map.
A key advantage of our method over existing crowd counting methods is its ability to quantify the uncertainty of its predictions.
We show that our sample selection strategy drastically reduces the amount of labeled data needed to adapt a counting network trained on a source domain to the target domain.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-09-30T03:40:07Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.