Compound Density Networks for Risk Prediction using Electronic Health Records

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2208.01320v1
• Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 09:04:20 GMT
• Title: Compound Density Networks for Risk Prediction using Electronic Health Records
• Authors: Yuxi Liu, Zhenhao Zhang, Shaowen Qin
• Abstract summary: We propose an integrated end-to-end approach by utilizing a Compound Density Network (CDNet) CDNet allows the imputation method and prediction model to be tuned together within a single framework. We validate CDNet on the mortality prediction task on the MIMIC-III dataset.
• Score: 1.1786249372283562
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Electronic Health Records (EHRs) exhibit a high amount of missing data due to variations of patient conditions and treatment needs. Imputation of missing values has been considered an effective approach to deal with this challenge. Existing work separates imputation method and prediction model as two independent parts of an EHR-based machine learning system. We propose an integrated end-to-end approach by utilizing a Compound Density Network (CDNet) that allows the imputation method and prediction model to be tuned together within a single framework. CDNet consists of a Gated recurrent unit (GRU), a Mixture Density Network (MDN), and a Regularized Attention Network (RAN). The GRU is used as a latent variable model to model EHR data. The MDN is designed to sample latent variables generated by GRU. The RAN serves as a regularizer for less reliable imputed values. The architecture of CDNet enables GRU and MDN to iteratively leverage the output of each other to impute missing values, leading to a more accurate and robust prediction. We validate CDNet on the mortality prediction task on the MIMIC-III dataset. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art models by significant margins. We also empirically show that regularizing imputed values is a key factor for superior prediction performance. Analysis of prediction uncertainty shows that our model can capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, which offers model users a better understanding of the model results.

Related papers

• An Investigation on Machine Learning Predictive Accuracy Improvement and Uncertainty Reduction using VAE-based Data Augmentation [2.517043342442487]
  Deep generative learning uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-10-24T18:15:48Z)
• Predicting Critical Heat Flux with Uncertainty Quantification and Domain Generalization Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders and Deep Neural Networks [2.517043342442487]
  We develop a conditional variational autoencoder model to augment the critical heat flux measurement data. A fine-tuned deep neural network (DNN) regression model was created and evaluated with the same dataset. The CVAE model was shown to have significantly less variability and a higher confidence after assessment of the prediction-wise relative standard deviations.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-09-09T16:50:41Z)
• Estimating Uncertainty with Implicit Quantile Network [0.0]
  Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-08-26T13:33:14Z)
• An AI-enabled Bias-Free Respiratory Disease Diagnosis Model using Cough Audio: A Case Study for COVID-19 [1.1146119513912156]
  We propose the Bias Free Network (RBFNet) to mitigate the impact of confounders in the training data distribution. RBFNet ensures accurate and unbiased RD diagnosis features, emphasizing its relevance by incorporating a COVID19 dataset. An additional bias predictor is incorporated in the classification scheme to formulate a conditional Generative Adrial Network (cGAN)
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-01-04T13:09:45Z)
• MedDiffusion: Boosting Health Risk Prediction via Diffusion-based Data Augmentation [58.93221876843639]
  This paper introduces a novel, end-to-end diffusion-based risk prediction model, named MedDiffusion. It enhances risk prediction performance by creating synthetic patient data during training to enlarge sample space. It discerns hidden relationships between patient visits using a step-wise attention mechanism, enabling the model to automatically retain the most vital information for generating high-quality data.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-10-04T01:36:30Z)
• Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks [52.20904874696597]
  Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful machine learning prediction models on graph-structured data. GNNs lack rigorous uncertainty estimates, limiting their reliable deployment in settings where the cost of errors is significant. We propose conformalized GNN (CF-GNN), extending conformal prediction (CP) to graph-based models for guaranteed uncertainty estimates.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-05-23T21:38:23Z)
• Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks for Accurate Long-range Forecasting [6.295157260756792]
  We introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN) PARNN is capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. We evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-04-01T17:57:36Z)
• Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performance [63.740181251997306]
  Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-01-11T23:01:12Z)
• UNITE: Uncertainty-based Health Risk Prediction Leveraging Multi-sourced Data [81.00385374948125]
  We present UNcertaInTy-based hEalth risk prediction (UNITE) model. UNITE provides accurate disease risk prediction and uncertainty estimation leveraging multi-sourced health data. We evaluate UNITE on real-world disease risk prediction tasks: nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NASH) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) UNITE achieves up to 0.841 in F1 score for AD detection, up to 0.609 in PR-AUC for NASH detection, and outperforms various state-of-the-art baselines by up to $19%$ over the best baseline.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-10-22T02:28:11Z)
• Unlabelled Data Improves Bayesian Uncertainty Calibration under Covariate Shift [100.52588638477862]
  We develop an approximate Bayesian inference scheme based on posterior regularisation. We demonstrate the utility of our method in the context of transferring prognostic models of prostate cancer across globally diverse populations.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-06-26T13:50:19Z)
• Diversity inducing Information Bottleneck in Model Ensembles [73.80615604822435]
  In this paper, we target the problem of generating effective ensembles of neural networks by encouraging diversity in prediction. We explicitly optimize a diversity inducing adversarial loss for learning latent variables and thereby obtain diversity in the output predictions necessary for modeling multi-modal data. Compared to the most competitive baselines, we show significant improvements in classification accuracy, under a shift in the data distribution.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-03-10T03:10:41Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.