A Framework for Evaluating the Impact of Food Security Scenarios
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2301.09320v2
- Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2023 05:48:17 GMT
- Title: A Framework for Evaluating the Impact of Food Security Scenarios
- Authors: Rachid Belmeskine, Abed Benaichouche
- Abstract summary: The case study is based on a proprietary time series food security database created using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT), the World Bank, and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
The proposed approach can be used to predict the potential impacts of scenarios on food security and the proprietary time series food security database can be used to support this approach.
- Score: 0.0
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: This study proposes an approach for predicting the impacts of scenarios on
food security and demonstrates its application in a case study. The approach
involves two main steps: (1) scenario definition, in which the end user
specifies the assumptions and impacts of the scenario using a scenario
template, and (2) scenario evaluation, in which a Vector Autoregression (VAR)
model is used in combination with Monte Carlo simulation to generate
predictions for the impacts of the scenario based on the defined assumptions
and impacts. The case study is based on a proprietary time series food security
database created using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAOSTAT), the World Bank, and the United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA). The database contains a wide range of data on various
indicators of food security, such as production, trade, consumption, prices,
availability, access, and nutritional value. The results show that the proposed
approach can be used to predict the potential impacts of scenarios on food
security and that the proprietary time series food security database can be
used to support this approach. The study provides specific insights on how this
approach can inform decision-making processes related to food security such as
food prices and availability in the case study region.
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