Long-Term Typhoon Trajectory Prediction: A Physics-Conditioned Approach Without Reanalysis Data

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2401.15726v1
• Date: Sun, 28 Jan 2024 18:28:33 GMT
• Title: Long-Term Typhoon Trajectory Prediction: A Physics-Conditioned Approach Without Reanalysis Data
• Authors: Young-Jae Park, Minseok Seo, Doyi Kim, Hyeri Kim, Sanghoon Choi, Beomkyu Choi, Jeongwon Ryu, Sohee Son, Hae-Gon Jeon, Yeji Choi
• Abstract summary: We present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models.
• Score: 18.321586950937647
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by \rthree{typhoons}, we release our preprocessed \textit{PHYSICS TRACK} dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

Related papers

• HR-Extreme: A High-Resolution Dataset for Extreme Weather Forecasting [12.561873438789242]
  This study introduces a comprehensive dataset that incorporates high-resolution extreme weather cases. We evaluate the current state-of-the-art deep learning models and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems on HR-Extreme.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-09-27T16:20:51Z)
• Weather Prediction Using CNN-LSTM for Time Series Analysis: A Case Study on Delhi Temperature Data [0.0]
  This study explores a hybrid CNN-LSTM model to enhance temperature forecasting accuracy for the Delhi region. We employed both direct and indirect methods, including comprehensive data preprocessing and exploratory analysis, to construct and train our model. Experimental results indicate that the CNN-LSTM model significantly outperforms traditional forecasting methods in terms of both accuracy and stability.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-09-14T11:06:07Z)
• Generalizing Weather Forecast to Fine-grained Temporal Scales via Physics-AI Hybrid Modeling [55.13352174687475]
  This paper proposes a physics-AI hybrid model (i.e., WeatherGFT) which Generalizes weather forecasts to Finer-grained Temporal scales. Specifically, we employ a carefully designed PDE kernel to simulate physical evolution on a small time scale. We introduce a lead time-aware training framework to promote the generalization of the model at different lead times.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-05-22T16:21:02Z)
• Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet [10.773673764125439]
  This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-05-21T20:06:12Z)
• Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather models [0.0]
  We study and compare uncertainty quantification methods to generate probabilistic weather forecasts from a state-of-the-art deterministic data-driven weather model, Pangu-Weather. Specifically, we compare approaches for quantifying forecast uncertainty based on generating ensemble forecasts via perturbations to the initial conditions. In a case study on medium-range forecasts of selected weather variables over Europe, the probabilistic forecasts obtained by using the Pangu-Weather model in concert with uncertainty quantification methods show promising results.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-03-20T10:07:51Z)
• ExtremeCast: Boosting Extreme Value Prediction for Global Weather Forecast [57.6987191099507]
  We introduce Exloss, a novel loss function that performs asymmetric optimization and highlights extreme values to obtain accurate extreme weather forecast. We also introduce ExBooster, which captures the uncertainty in prediction outcomes by employing multiple random samples. Our solution can achieve state-of-the-art performance in extreme weather prediction, while maintaining the overall forecast accuracy comparable to the top medium-range forecast models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-02-02T10:34:13Z)
• FengWu-4DVar: Coupling the Data-driven Weather Forecasting Model with 4D Variational Assimilation [67.20588721130623]
  We develop an AI-based cyclic weather forecasting system, FengWu-4DVar. FengWu-4DVar can incorporate observational data into the data-driven weather forecasting model. Experiments on the simulated observational dataset demonstrate that FengWu-4DVar is capable of generating reasonable analysis fields.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-12-16T02:07:56Z)
• Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscaling [58.456404022536425]
  State of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling such global inputs to km-scale, as a cost-effective machine learning alternative. The model is trained to predict 2km data from a regional weather model over Taiwan, conditioned on a 25km global reanalysis.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-09-24T19:57:22Z)
• Long-term drought prediction using deep neural networks based on geospatial weather data [75.38539438000072]
  High-quality drought forecasting up to a year in advance is critical for agriculture planning and insurance. We tackle drought data by introducing an end-to-end approach that adopts a systematic end-to-end approach. Key findings are the exceptional performance of a Transformer model, EarthFormer, in making accurate short-term (up to six months) forecasts.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-09-12T13:28:06Z)
• A generative adversarial network approach to (ensemble) weather prediction [91.3755431537592]
  We use a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network to predict the geopotential height of the 500 hPa pressure level, the two-meter temperature and the total precipitation for the next 24 hours over Europe. The proposed models are trained on 4 years of ERA5 reanalysis data from 2015-2018 with the goal to predict the associated meteorological fields in 2019.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-06-13T20:53:17Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.