Adaptive Experiment Design with Synthetic Controls
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2401.17205v2
- Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2024 18:08:33 GMT
- Title: Adaptive Experiment Design with Synthetic Controls
- Authors: Alihan H\"uy\"uk, Zhaozhi Qian, Mihaela van der Schaar
- Abstract summary: We propose Syntax, an exploratory trial design that identifies subpopulations with positive treatment effect among many subpopulations.
We validate the performance of Syntax and provide insights into when it might have an advantage over conventional trial designs through experiments.
- Score: 79.69661880236293
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Clinical trials are typically run in order to understand the effects of a new
treatment on a given population of patients. However, patients in large
populations rarely respond the same way to the same treatment. This
heterogeneity in patient responses necessitates trials that investigate effects
on multiple subpopulations - especially when a treatment has marginal or no
benefit for the overall population but might have significant benefit for a
particular subpopulation. Motivated by this need, we propose Syntax, an
exploratory trial design that identifies subpopulations with positive treatment
effect among many subpopulations. Syntax is sample efficient as it (i) recruits
and allocates patients adaptively and (ii) estimates treatment effects by
forming synthetic controls for each subpopulation that combines control samples
from other subpopulations. We validate the performance of Syntax and provide
insights into when it might have an advantage over conventional trial designs
through experiments.
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