Impact of Employing Weather Forecast Data as Input to the Estimation of Evapotranspiration by Deep Neural Network Models

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2403.18489v1
• Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2024 12:01:51 GMT
• Title: Impact of Employing Weather Forecast Data as Input to the Estimation of Evapotranspiration by Deep Neural Network Models
• Authors: Pedro J. Vaz, Gabriela Schütz, Carlos Guerrero, Pedro J. S. Cardoso,
• Abstract summary: Evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key parameter for designing smart irrigation scheduling, since it is related by a coefficient to the water needs of a crop. To compute ET0 using the FAO56-PM method, four main weather parameters are needed: temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation.
• Score: 0.11249583407496218
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Reference Evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key parameter for designing smart irrigation scheduling, since it is related by a coefficient to the water needs of a crop. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, proposed a standard method for ET0 computation (FAO56PM), based on the parameterization of the Penman-Monteith equation, that is widely adopted in the literature. To compute ET0 using the FAO56-PM method, four main weather parameters are needed: temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation (SR). One way to make daily ET0 estimations for future days is to use freely available weather forecast services (WFSs), where many meteorological parameters are estimated up to the next 15 days. A problem with this method is that currently, SR is not provided as a free forecast parameter on most of those online services or, normally, such forecasts present a financial cost penalty. For this reason, several ET0 estimation models using machine and deep learning were developed and presented in the literature, that use as input features a reduced set of carefully selected weather parameters, that are compatible with common freely available WFSs. However, most studies on this topic have only evaluated model performance using data from weather stations (WSs), without considering the effect of using weather forecast data. In this study, the performance of authors' previous models is evaluated when using weather forecast data from two online WFSs, in the following scenarios: (i) direct ET0 estimation by an ANN model, and (ii) estimate SR by ANN model, and then use that estimation for ET0 computation, using the FAO56-PM method. Employing data collected from two WFSs and a WS located in Vale do Lobo, Portugal, the latter approach achieved the best result, with a coefficient of determination (R2) ranging between 0.893 and 0.667, when considering forecasts up to 15 days.

Related papers

• WeatherReal: A Benchmark Based on In-Situ Observations for Evaluating Weather Models [11.016845506758841]
  We introduce WeatherReal, a novel benchmark dataset for weather forecasting derived from global near-surface in-situ observations. This paper details the sources and processing methodologies underlying the dataset, and illustrates the advantage of in-situ observations in capturing hyper-local and extreme weather. Our work aims to advance the AI-based weather forecasting research towards a more application-focused and operation-ready approach.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-09-14T08:53:46Z)
• Efficient Localized Adaptation of Neural Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in the MENA Region [62.09891513612252]
  We focus on limited-area modeling and train our model specifically for localized region-level downstream tasks. We consider the MENA region due to its unique climatic challenges, where accurate localized weather forecasting is crucial for managing water resources, agriculture and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. Our study aims to validate the effectiveness of integrating parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methodologies, specifically Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and its variants, to enhance forecast accuracy, as well as training speed, computational resource utilization, and memory efficiency in weather and climate modeling for specific regions.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-09-11T19:31:56Z)
• How far are today's time-series models from real-world weather forecasting applications? [22.68937280154092]
  WEATHER-5K is a comprehensive collection of observational weather data that better reflects real-world scenarios. It enables a better training of models and a more accurate assessment of the real-world forecasting capabilities of TSF models. We provide researchers with a clear assessment of the gap between academic TSF models and real-world weather forecasting applications.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-06-20T15:18:52Z)
• Lightning-Fast Convective Outlooks: Predicting Severe Convective Environments with Global AI-based Weather Models [0.08271752505511926]
  Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. Recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds. We assess the forecast skill of three top-performing AI-models for convective parameters against reanalysis and ECMWF's operational numerical weather prediction model IFS.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-06-13T07:46:03Z)
• FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecasting [56.73502043159699]
  This work presents FengWu-GHR, the first data-driven global weather forecasting model running at the 0.09$circ$ horizontal resolution. It introduces a novel approach that opens the door for operating ML-based high-resolution forecasts by inheriting prior knowledge from a low-resolution model. The hindcast of weather prediction in 2022 indicates that FengWu-GHR is superior to the IFS-HRES.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-01-28T13:23:25Z)
• Towards an end-to-end artificial intelligence driven global weather forecasting system [57.5191940978886]
  We present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. We are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-12-18T09:05:28Z)
• Long-term drought prediction using deep neural networks based on geospatial weather data [75.38539438000072]
  High-quality drought forecasting up to a year in advance is critical for agriculture planning and insurance. We tackle drought data by introducing an end-to-end approach that adopts a systematic end-to-end approach. Key findings are the exceptional performance of a Transformer model, EarthFormer, in making accurate short-term (up to six months) forecasts.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-09-12T13:28:06Z)
• Precipitation nowcasting with generative diffusion models [0.0]
  We study the efficacy of diffusion models in handling the task of precipitation nowcasting. Our work is conducted in comparison to the performance of well-established U-Net models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-08-13T09:51:16Z)
• Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast [91.9372563527801]
  We present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For the first time, an AI-based method outperforms state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. Pangu-Weather supports a wide range of downstream forecast scenarios, including extreme weather forecast and large-member ensemble forecast in real-time.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-11-03T17:19:43Z)
• A Deep Convolutional Neural Network Model for improving WRF Forecasts [0.19573380763700707]
  We train the CNN model with a four-year history (2014-2017) to investigate the patterns in WRF biases. We then reduce these biases in forecasts for surface wind speed and direction, precipitation, relative humidity, surface pressure, dewpoint temperature, and surface temperature. The results indicate a noticeable improvement in WRF forecasts in all station locations.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-08-14T17:48:06Z)
• A generative adversarial network approach to (ensemble) weather prediction [91.3755431537592]
  We use a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network to predict the geopotential height of the 500 hPa pressure level, the two-meter temperature and the total precipitation for the next 24 hours over Europe. The proposed models are trained on 4 years of ERA5 reanalysis data from 2015-2018 with the goal to predict the associated meteorological fields in 2019.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-06-13T20:53:17Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.