Geometry-Aware Instrumental Variable Regression
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2405.11633v1
- Date: Sun, 19 May 2024 17:49:33 GMT
- Title: Geometry-Aware Instrumental Variable Regression
- Authors: Heiner Kremer, Bernhard Schölkopf,
- Abstract summary: We propose a transport-based IV estimator that takes into account the geometry of the data manifold through data-derivative information.
We provide a simple plug-and-play implementation of our method that performs on par with related estimators in standard settings.
- Score: 56.16884466478886
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Instrumental variable (IV) regression can be approached through its formulation in terms of conditional moment restrictions (CMR). Building on variants of the generalized method of moments, most CMR estimators are implicitly based on approximating the population data distribution via reweightings of the empirical sample. While for large sample sizes, in the independent identically distributed (IID) setting, reweightings can provide sufficient flexibility, they might fail to capture the relevant information in presence of corrupted data or data prone to adversarial attacks. To address these shortcomings, we propose the Sinkhorn Method of Moments, an optimal transport-based IV estimator that takes into account the geometry of the data manifold through data-derivative information. We provide a simple plug-and-play implementation of our method that performs on par with related estimators in standard settings but improves robustness against data corruption and adversarial attacks.
Related papers
- Assumption-Lean Post-Integrated Inference with Negative Control Outcomes [0.0]
We introduce a robust post-integrated inference (PII) method that adjusts for latent heterogeneity using negative control outcomes.
Our method extends to projected direct effect estimands, accounting for hidden mediators, confounders, and moderators.
The proposed doubly robust estimators are consistent and efficient under minimal assumptions and potential misspecification.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-10-07T12:52:38Z) - Risk and cross validation in ridge regression with correlated samples [72.59731158970894]
We provide training examples for the in- and out-of-sample risks of ridge regression when the data points have arbitrary correlations.
We further extend our analysis to the case where the test point has non-trivial correlations with the training set, setting often encountered in time series forecasting.
We validate our theory across a variety of high dimensional data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-08-08T17:27:29Z) - Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference for Hybrid Language Model Evaluation [62.2436697657307]
Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data.
We propose a method called Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference (StratPPI)
We show that the basic PPI estimates can be considerably improved by employing simple data stratification strategies.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-06-06T17:37:39Z) - Adaptive Principal Component Regression with Applications to Panel Data [29.295938927701396]
We provide the first time-uniform finite sample guarantees for (regularized) Principal component regression.
Our results rely on adapting tools from modern martingale concentration to the error-in-variables setting.
We show that our method empirically outperforms a baseline which does not leverage error-in-variables regression.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-07-03T21:13:40Z) - Multi-Fidelity Covariance Estimation in the Log-Euclidean Geometry [0.0]
We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold.
We develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget.
Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-01-31T16:33:46Z) - TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series [76.71406465526454]
estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance.
We propose a versatile method that estimates joint distributions using an attention-based decoder.
We show that our model produces state-of-the-art predictions on several real-world datasets.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-02-07T21:37:29Z) - Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effect by Data Combination [3.655021726150368]
It is important to estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE) when compliance with a treatment assignment is incomplete.
Previously proposed methods for LATE estimation required all relevant variables to be jointly observed in a single dataset.
We propose a weighted least squares estimator that enables simpler model selection by avoiding the minimax objective formulation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-09-11T03:51:48Z) - Near-optimal inference in adaptive linear regression [60.08422051718195]
Even simple methods like least squares can exhibit non-normal behavior when data is collected in an adaptive manner.
We propose a family of online debiasing estimators to correct these distributional anomalies in at least squares estimation.
We demonstrate the usefulness of our theory via applications to multi-armed bandit, autoregressive time series estimation, and active learning with exploration.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-07-05T21:05:11Z) - Off-Policy Evaluation via Adaptive Weighting with Data from Contextual
Bandits [5.144809478361604]
We improve the doubly robust (DR) estimator by adaptively weighting observations to control its variance.
We provide empirical evidence for our estimator's improved accuracy and inferential properties relative to existing alternatives.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-06-03T17:54:44Z) - Risk Minimization from Adaptively Collected Data: Guarantees for
Supervised and Policy Learning [57.88785630755165]
Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is the workhorse of machine learning, but its model-agnostic guarantees can fail when we use adaptively collected data.
We study a generic importance sampling weighted ERM algorithm for using adaptively collected data to minimize the average of a loss function over a hypothesis class.
For policy learning, we provide rate-optimal regret guarantees that close an open gap in the existing literature whenever exploration decays to zero.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-06-03T09:50:13Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.