A Multisource Fusion Framework for Cryptocurrency Price Movement Prediction
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2409.18895v2
- Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2025 16:29:47 GMT
- Title: A Multisource Fusion Framework for Cryptocurrency Price Movement Prediction
- Authors: Saeed Mohammadi Dashtaki, Reza Mohammadi Dashtaki, Mehdi Hosseini Chagahi, Behzad Moshiri, Md. Jalil Piran,
- Abstract summary: This study proposes a multisource fusion framework that integrates quantitative financial indicators, such as historical prices and technical indicators, with qualitative sentiment signals derived from X (formerly Twitter)<n> Experimental results on a large-scale Bitcoin dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach substantially outperforms single-source models.
- Score: 5.252967226385235
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
- Abstract: Predicting cryptocurrency price trends remains a major challenge due to the volatility and complexity of digital asset markets. Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful tool to address this problem. This study proposes a multisource fusion framework that integrates quantitative financial indicators, such as historical prices and technical indicators, with qualitative sentiment signals derived from X (formerly Twitter). Sentiment analysis is performed using Financial Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (FinBERT), a domain-specific BERT-based model optimized for financial text, while sequential dependencies are captured through a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network. Experimental results on a large-scale Bitcoin dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach substantially outperforms single-source models, achieving an accuracy of approximately 96.8\%. The findings underscore the importance of incorporating real-time social sentiment alongside traditional indicators, thereby enhancing predictive accuracy and supporting more informed investment decisions.
Related papers
- Trade in Minutes! Rationality-Driven Agentic System for Quantitative Financial Trading [57.28635022507172]
TiMi is a rationality-driven multi-agent system that architecturally decouples strategy development from minute-level deployment.<n>We propose a two-tier analytical paradigm from macro patterns to micro customization, layered programming design for trading bot implementation, and closed-loop optimization driven by mathematical reflection.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-10-06T13:08:55Z) - crypto price prediction using lstm+xgboost [0.0]
This research proposes a hybrid deep learning and machine learning model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for cryptocurrency price prediction.<n>The LSTM component captures temporal dependencies in historical price data, while XGBoost enhances prediction by modeling nonlinear relationships with auxiliary features such as sentiment scores and macroeconomic indicators.<n>The model is evaluated on historical datasets of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Litecoin, incorporating both global and localized exchange data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-06-27T09:49:25Z) - FinTSB: A Comprehensive and Practical Benchmark for Financial Time Series Forecasting [58.70072722290475]
Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making.<n>FinTSB is a comprehensive and practical benchmark for financial time series forecasting.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-02-26T05:19:16Z) - Multimodal Stock Price Prediction [0.0]
It has become increasingly critical to carefully integrate diverse data sources with machine learning for accurate stock price prediction.<n>This paper explores a multimodal machine learning approach for stock price prediction by combining data from diverse sources, including traditional financial metrics, tweets, and news articles.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-01-23T16:38:46Z) - FinRobot: AI Agent for Equity Research and Valuation with Large Language Models [6.2474959166074955]
This paper presents FinRobot, the first AI agent framework specifically designed for equity research.
FinRobot employs a multi-agent Chain of Thought (CoT) system, integrating both quantitative and qualitative analyses to emulate the comprehensive reasoning of a human analyst.
Unlike existing automated research tools, such as CapitalCube and Wright Reports, FinRobot delivers insights comparable to those produced by major brokerage firms and fundamental research vendors.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-11-13T17:38:07Z) - FinBERT-BiLSTM: A Deep Learning Model for Predicting Volatile Cryptocurrency Market Prices Using Market Sentiment Dynamics [3.6423651166048874]
We propose a hybrid model that combines Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) networks with FinBERT to enhance forecasting accuracy for cryptocurrencies.
This approach fills a key gap in forecasting volatile financial markets by blending advanced time series models with sentiment analysis.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-11-02T14:43:06Z) - Predicting Bitcoin Market Trends with Enhanced Technical Indicator Integration and Classification Models [6.39158540499473]
This study presents a machine learning model based on classification to forecast the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
It is trained using historical data and important technical indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence, the Relative Strength Index, and Bollinger Bands.
The results show a buy/sell signal accuracy of over 92%.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-10-09T14:29:50Z) - Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting Using XGBoost Regressor and Technical Indicators [2.038893829552158]
This study introduces a machine learning approach to predict cryptocurrency prices.
We make use of important technical indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to train and feed the XGBoost regressor model.
We evaluate the model's performance through various simulations, showing promising results.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-07-16T14:41:27Z) - AlphaFin: Benchmarking Financial Analysis with Retrieval-Augmented Stock-Chain Framework [48.3060010653088]
We release AlphaFin datasets, combining traditional research datasets, real-time financial data, and handwritten chain-of-thought (CoT) data.
We then use AlphaFin datasets to benchmark a state-of-the-art method, called Stock-Chain, for effectively tackling the financial analysis task.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-03-19T09:45:33Z) - Enhancing Financial Data Visualization for Investment Decision-Making [0.04096453902709291]
This paper delves into the potential of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for predicting stock dynamics.
The study incorporates multiple features to enhance LSTM's capacity in capturing complex patterns.
The meticulously crafted LSTM incorporates crucial price and volume attributes over a 25-day time step.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-12-09T07:53:25Z) - Interplay between Cryptocurrency Transactions and Online Financial
Forums [41.94295877935867]
This study focuses on the study of the interplay between these cryptocurrency forums and fluctuations in cryptocurrency values.
It shows that the activity of Bitcointalk forum keeps a direct relationship with the trend in the values of BTC.
The experiment highlights that forum data can explain specific events in the financial field.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-11-27T16:25:28Z) - Deep Learning and NLP in Cryptocurrency Forecasting: Integrating Financial, Blockchain, and Social Media Data [3.6390165502400875]
We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques.
By analysing news and social media content, we assess the impact of public sentiment on cryptocurrency markets.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-11-23T16:14:44Z) - Diffusion Variational Autoencoder for Tackling Stochasticity in
Multi-Step Regression Stock Price Prediction [54.21695754082441]
Multi-step stock price prediction over a long-term horizon is crucial for forecasting its volatility.
Current solutions to multi-step stock price prediction are mostly designed for single-step, classification-based predictions.
We combine a deep hierarchical variational-autoencoder (VAE) and diffusion probabilistic techniques to do seq2seq stock prediction.
Our model is shown to outperform state-of-the-art solutions in terms of its prediction accuracy and variance.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-08-18T16:21:15Z) - Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Predicting Cryptocurrency Price Directions: Uncovering Causal Relationships [1.4356611205757077]
Six popular cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Coin, Litecoin, Ripple, and Tether are studied in this work.
We propose a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)-based approach to uncover potential causal relationships among various features including social media data, traditional financial market factors, and technical indicators.
The results show that while DBN performance varies across cryptocurrencies, some cryptocurrencies exhibiting higher predictive accuracy than others, the DBN significantly outperforms the baseline models.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-06-13T22:07:51Z) - Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models [51.3422222472898]
We document the capability of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT to predict stock price movements using news headlines.
We develop a theoretical model incorporating information capacity constraints, underreaction, limits-to-arbitrage, and LLMs.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-04-15T19:22:37Z) - Forecasting Bitcoin volatility spikes from whale transactions and
CryptoQuant data using Synthesizer Transformer models [5.88864611435337]
We propose a deep learning Synthesizer Transformer model for forecasting volatility.
Our results show that the model outperforms existing state-of-the-art models.
Our findings underscore that the proposed method is a useful tool for forecasting extreme volatility movements in the Bitcoin market.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-06T05:44:29Z) - Cryptocurrency Bubble Detection: A New Stock Market Dataset, Financial
Task & Hyperbolic Models [31.690290125073197]
We present and publicly release CryptoBubbles, a novel multi-span identification task for bubble detection.
We develop a set of sequence-to-sequence hyperbolic models suited to this multi-span identification task.
We show the practical applicability of CryptoBubbles and hyperbolic models on Reddit and Twitter.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-05-11T08:10:02Z) - Sequence-Based Target Coin Prediction for Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump [39.06710188537909]
This paper focuses on predicting the pump probability of all coins listed in the target exchange before a scheduled pump time.
We conduct a comprehensive study of the latest 709 P&D events organized in Telegram from Jan. 2019 to Jan. 2022.
We develop a novel sequence-based neural network, dubbed SNN, which encodes a channel's P&D event history into a sequence representation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-04-21T16:34:53Z) - Bayesian Bilinear Neural Network for Predicting the Mid-price Dynamics
in Limit-Order Book Markets [84.90242084523565]
Traditional time-series econometric methods often appear incapable of capturing the true complexity of the multi-level interactions driving the price dynamics.
By adopting a state-of-the-art second-order optimization algorithm, we train a Bayesian bilinear neural network with temporal attention.
By addressing the use of predictive distributions to analyze errors and uncertainties associated with the estimated parameters and model forecasts, we thoroughly compare our Bayesian model with traditional ML alternatives.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-03-07T18:59:54Z) - Gaussian process imputation of multiple financial series [71.08576457371433]
Multiple time series such as financial indicators, stock prices and exchange rates are strongly coupled due to their dependence on the latent state of the market.
We focus on learning the relationships among financial time series by modelling them through a multi-output Gaussian process.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-02-11T19:18:18Z) - Reinforcement-Learning based Portfolio Management with Augmented Asset
Movement Prediction States [71.54651874063865]
Portfolio management (PM) aims to achieve investment goals such as maximal profits or minimal risks.
In this paper, we propose SARL, a novel State-Augmented RL framework for PM.
Our framework aims to address two unique challenges in financial PM: (1) data Heterogeneous data -- the collected information for each asset is usually diverse, noisy and imbalanced (e.g., news articles); and (2) environment uncertainty -- the financial market is versatile and non-stationary.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-02-09T08:10:03Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.