Conditional Forecasting of Margin Calls using Dynamic Graph Neural Networks

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2410.23275v1
• Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2024 17:55:41 GMT
• Title: Conditional Forecasting of Margin Calls using Dynamic Graph Neural Networks
• Authors: Matteo Citterio, Marco D'Errico, Gabriele Visentin,
• Abstract summary: We introduce a novel Dynamic Graph Neural Network architecture for solving conditional $m$-steps ahead forecasting problems in temporal financial networks. Our work shows that the network dynamics can be successfully incorporated into stress-testing practices, thus providing regulators and policymakers with a crucial tool for systemic risk monitoring.
• Score: 0.0
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• Abstract: We introduce a novel Dynamic Graph Neural Network (DGNN) architecture for solving conditional $m$-steps ahead forecasting problems in temporal financial networks. The proposed DGNN is validated on simulated data from a temporal financial network model capturing stylized features of Interest Rate Swaps (IRSs) transaction networks, where financial entities trade swap contracts dynamically and the network topology evolves conditionally on a reference rate. The proposed model is able to produce accurate conditional forecasts of net variation margins up to a $21$-day horizon by leveraging conditional information under pre-determined stress test scenarios. Our work shows that the network dynamics can be successfully incorporated into stress-testing practices, thus providing regulators and policymakers with a crucial tool for systemic risk monitoring.

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