Exploiting Risk-Aversion and Size-dependent fees in FX Trading with Fitted Natural Actor-Critic
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2410.23294v1
- Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2024 13:13:07 GMT
- Title: Exploiting Risk-Aversion and Size-dependent fees in FX Trading with Fitted Natural Actor-Critic
- Abstract summary: We focus on the possibility of recognizing and leveraging intraday price patterns in the Foreign Exchange market.
Our approach involves the implementation of a Reinforcement Learning algorithm called Fitted Natural Actor-Critic.
It is instrumental to realistically model transaction costs, as they typically depend on the order size.
- Score: 30.043195728451412
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: In recent years, the popularity of artificial intelligence has surged due to its widespread application in various fields. The financial sector has harnessed its advantages for multiple purposes, including the development of automated trading systems designed to interact autonomously with markets to pursue different aims. In this work, we focus on the possibility of recognizing and leveraging intraday price patterns in the Foreign Exchange market, known for its extensive liquidity and flexibility. Our approach involves the implementation of a Reinforcement Learning algorithm called Fitted Natural Actor-Critic. This algorithm allows the training of an agent capable of effectively trading by means of continuous actions, which enable the possibility of executing orders with variable trading sizes. This feature is instrumental to realistically model transaction costs, as they typically depend on the order size. Furthermore, it facilitates the integration of risk-averse approaches to induce the agent to adopt more conservative behavior. The proposed approaches have been empirically validated on EUR-USD historical data.
Related papers
- AlphaCrafter: A Full-Stack Multi-Agent Framework for Cross-Sectional Quantitative Trading [26.48283300875701]
Building quantitative strategies that remain profitable demands the continuous coupling of factor discovery, regime-adaptive selection, and risk-constrained execution.<n>We introduce AlphaCrafter, a full-stack multi-agent framework that closes this gap through a continuously adaptive factor-to-execution pipeline.<n>Experiments on CSI 300 and S&P 500 demonstrate that AlphaCrafter consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in risk-adjusted returns.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-05-07T01:58:30Z) - Robust Reinforcement Learning in Finance: Modeling Market Impact with Elliptic Uncertainty Sets [57.179679246370114]
In financial applications, reinforcement learning (RL) agents are commonly trained on historical data, where their actions do not influence prices.<n>During deployment, these agents trade in live markets where their own transactions can shift asset prices, a phenomenon known as market impact.<n>Traditional robust RL approaches address this model misspecification by optimizing the worst-case performance over a set of uncertainties.<n>We develop a novel class of elliptic uncertainty sets, enabling efficient and tractable robust policy evaluation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-10-22T18:22:25Z) - Trade in Minutes! Rationality-Driven Agentic System for Quantitative Financial Trading [57.28635022507172]
TiMi is a rationality-driven multi-agent system that architecturally decouples strategy development from minute-level deployment.<n>We propose a two-tier analytical paradigm from macro patterns to micro customization, layered programming design for trading bot implementation, and closed-loop optimization driven by mathematical reflection.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-10-06T13:08:55Z) - Learn to Rank Risky Investors: A Case Study of Predicting Retail Traders' Behaviour and Profitability [3.731289189298451]
We propose a profit-aware risk ranker (PA-RiskRanker) that reframes the problem of identifying risky traders as a ranking task.<n>Our approach features a Profit-Aware binary cross entropy (PA-BCE) loss function and a transformer-based ranker enhanced with a self-cross-trader attention pipeline.<n>Our research critically examines the limitations of existing deep learning-based LETOR algorithms in trading risk management.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-20T10:41:13Z) - To Trade or Not to Trade: An Agentic Approach to Estimating Market Risk Improves Trading Decisions [0.0]
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic frameworks.<n>We develop an agentic system that uses LLMs to iteratively discover differential equations for financial time series.<n>We find that model-informed trading strategies outperform standard LLM-based agents.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-07-11T13:29:32Z) - The Real Barrier to LLM Agent Usability is Agentic ROI [110.31127571114635]
Large Language Model (LLM) agents represent a promising shift in human-AI interaction.<n>We highlight a critical usability gap in high-demand, mass-market applications.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-05-23T11:40:58Z) - Agentic Knowledgeable Self-awareness [79.25908923383776]
KnowSelf is a data-centric approach that applies agents with knowledgeable self-awareness like humans.
Our experiments demonstrate that KnowSelf can outperform various strong baselines on different tasks and models with minimal use of external knowledge.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-04-04T16:03:38Z) - Shifting Power: Leveraging LLMs to Simulate Human Aversion in ABMs of Bilateral Financial Exchanges, A bond market study [15.379345372327375]
TRIBE is an agent-based model augmented with a large language model (LLM) to simulate human-like decision-making in trading environments.
We show that incorporating human-like variability shifts power dynamics towards clients and can disproportionately affect the entire system.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-03-01T03:15:13Z) - Agent Trading Arena: A Study on Numerical Understanding in LLM-Based Agents [69.58565132975504]
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language tasks.<n>We present the Agent Trading Arena, a virtual zero-sum stock market in which LLM-based agents engage in competitive multi-agent trading.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-02-25T08:41:01Z) - TradingAgents: Multi-Agents LLM Financial Trading Framework [4.293484524693143]
TradingAgents proposes a novel stock trading framework inspired by trading firms.
It features LLM-powered agents in specialized roles such as fundamental analysts, sentiment analysts, technical analysts, and traders with varied risk profiles.
By simulating a dynamic, collaborative trading environment, this framework aims to improve trading performance.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-12-28T12:54:06Z) - From Novice to Expert: LLM Agent Policy Optimization via Step-wise Reinforcement Learning [62.54484062185869]
We introduce StepAgent, which utilizes step-wise reward to optimize the agent's reinforcement learning process.
We propose implicit-reward and inverse reinforcement learning techniques to facilitate agent reflection and policy adjustment.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-11-06T10:35:11Z) - When AI Meets Finance (StockAgent): Large Language Model-based Stock Trading in Simulated Real-world Environments [55.19252983108372]
We have developed a multi-agent AI system called StockAgent, driven by LLMs.
The StockAgent allows users to evaluate the impact of different external factors on investor trading.
It avoids the test set leakage issue present in existing trading simulation systems based on AI Agents.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-07-15T06:49:30Z) - Data-Adaptive Tradeoffs among Multiple Risks in Distribution-Free Prediction [55.77015419028725]
We develop methods that permit valid control of risk when threshold and tradeoff parameters are chosen adaptively.
Our methodology supports monotone and nearly-monotone risks, but otherwise makes no distributional assumptions.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-03-28T17:28:06Z) - QuantAgent: Seeking Holy Grail in Trading by Self-Improving Large
Language Model [14.800710112671226]
This paper introduces a principled framework to address the core challenge of efficiently building and integrating a domain-specific knowledge base.
In the inner loop, the agent refines its responses by drawing from its knowledge base, while in the outer loop, these responses are tested in real-world scenarios.
We instantiate this framework through an autonomous agent for mining trading signals named QuantAgent.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-02-06T06:47:14Z) - Decision Tree Psychological Risk Assessment in Currency Trading [0.0]
The paper posits that AI models are capable of identifying nuanced patterns within the trader's historical data.
The real-time nature of the calculations enhances the model's utility as a proactive tool.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-11-26T07:23:37Z) - Bayesian Bilinear Neural Network for Predicting the Mid-price Dynamics
in Limit-Order Book Markets [84.90242084523565]
Traditional time-series econometric methods often appear incapable of capturing the true complexity of the multi-level interactions driving the price dynamics.
By adopting a state-of-the-art second-order optimization algorithm, we train a Bayesian bilinear neural network with temporal attention.
By addressing the use of predictive distributions to analyze errors and uncertainties associated with the estimated parameters and model forecasts, we thoroughly compare our Bayesian model with traditional ML alternatives.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-03-07T18:59:54Z) - Universal Trading for Order Execution with Oracle Policy Distillation [99.57416828489568]
We propose a novel universal trading policy optimization framework to bridge the gap between the noisy yet imperfect market states and the optimal action sequences for order execution.
We show that our framework can better guide the learning of the common policy towards practically optimal execution by an oracle teacher with perfect information.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-01-28T05:52:18Z) - Option Hedging with Risk Averse Reinforcement Learning [34.85783251852863]
We show how risk-averse reinforcement learning can be used to hedge options.
We apply a state-of-the-art risk-averse algorithm to a vanilla option hedging environment.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-10-23T09:08:24Z) - Differential Machine Learning [0.0]
Differential machine learning combines automatic adjoint differentiation (AAD) with modern machine learning (ML)
We introduce novel algorithms for training fast, accurate pricing and risk approximations, online, in real-time, with convergence guarantees.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-05-05T17:32:37Z) - A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for Continuous Intraday Market
Bidding [69.37299910149981]
A key component for the successful renewable energy sources integration is the usage of energy storage.
We propose a novel modelling framework for the strategic participation of energy storage in the European continuous intraday market.
An distributed version of the fitted Q algorithm is chosen for solving this problem due to its sample efficiency.
Results indicate that the agent converges to a policy that achieves in average higher total revenues than the benchmark strategy.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-04-13T13:50:13Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.