Neural Conformal Control for Time Series Forecasting

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2412.18144v1
• Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2024 03:56:25 GMT
• Title: Neural Conformal Control for Time Series Forecasting
• Authors: Ruipu Li, Alexander Rodríguez,
• Abstract summary: We introduce a neural network conformal prediction method for time series that enhances adaptivity in non-stationary environments. Our approach acts as a neural controller designed to achieve desired target coverage, leveraging auxiliary multi-view data with neural network encoders. We empirically demonstrate significant improvements in coverage and probabilistic accuracy, and find that our method is the only one that combines good calibration with consistency in prediction intervals.
• Score: 54.96087475179419
• License:
• Abstract: We introduce a neural network conformal prediction method for time series that enhances adaptivity in non-stationary environments. Our approach acts as a neural controller designed to achieve desired target coverage, leveraging auxiliary multi-view data with neural network encoders in an end-to-end manner to further enhance adaptivity. Additionally, our model is designed to enhance the consistency of prediction intervals in different quantiles by integrating monotonicity constraints and leverages data from related tasks to boost few-shot learning performance. Using real-world datasets from epidemics, electric demand, weather, and others, we empirically demonstrate significant improvements in coverage and probabilistic accuracy, and find that our method is the only one that combines good calibration with consistency in prediction intervals.

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