Surrogate Modeling for Explainable Predictive Time Series Corrections

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2412.19897v2
• Date: Wed, 15 Jan 2025 19:51:44 GMT
• Title: Surrogate Modeling for Explainable Predictive Time Series Corrections
• Authors: Alfredo Lopez, Florian Sobieczky,
• Abstract summary: An initially non-interpretable predictive model is used to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' 'Explainability' of the correction is provided by fitting the base model again to the data from which the error prediction is removed (subtracted) We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the potential of the method to discover and explain underlying patterns in the data.
• Score: 0.0
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• Abstract: We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is provided by fitting the base model again to the data from which the error prediction is removed (subtracted), yielding a difference in the model parameters which can be interpreted. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the potential of the method to discover and explain underlying patterns in the data.

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