Data-Driven Calibration of Prediction Sets in Large Vision-Language Models Based on Inductive Conformal Prediction

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2504.17671v2
• Date: Fri, 25 Apr 2025 09:34:59 GMT
• Title: Data-Driven Calibration of Prediction Sets in Large Vision-Language Models Based on Inductive Conformal Prediction
• Authors: Yuanchang Ye, Weiyan Wen,
• Abstract summary: We propose a model-agnostic uncertainty quantification method that integrates dynamic threshold calibration and cross-modal consistency verification.<n>We show that the framework achieves stable performance across varying calibration-to-test split ratios, underscoring its robustness for real-world deployment in healthcare, autonomous systems, and other safety-sensitive domains.<n>This work bridges the gap between theoretical reliability and practical applicability in multi-modal AI systems, offering a scalable solution for hallucination detection and uncertainty-aware decision-making.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: This study addresses the critical challenge of hallucination mitigation in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) for Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks through a Split Conformal Prediction (SCP) framework. While LVLMs excel in multi-modal reasoning, their outputs often exhibit hallucinated content with high confidence, posing risks in safety-critical applications. We propose a model-agnostic uncertainty quantification method that integrates dynamic threshold calibration and cross-modal consistency verification. By partitioning data into calibration and test sets, the framework computes nonconformity scores to construct prediction sets with statistical guarantees under user-defined risk levels ($\alpha$). Key innovations include: (1) rigorous control of \textbf{marginal coverage} to ensure empirical error rates remain strictly below $\alpha$; (2) dynamic adjustment of prediction set sizes inversely with $\alpha$, filtering low-confidence outputs; (3) elimination of prior distribution assumptions and retraining requirements. Evaluations on benchmarks (ScienceQA, MMMU) with eight LVLMs demonstrate that SCP enforces theoretical guarantees across all $\alpha$ values. The framework achieves stable performance across varying calibration-to-test split ratios, underscoring its robustness for real-world deployment in healthcare, autonomous systems, and other safety-sensitive domains. This work bridges the gap between theoretical reliability and practical applicability in multi-modal AI systems, offering a scalable solution for hallucination detection and uncertainty-aware decision-making.

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