Related papers: Vague Knowledge: Evidence from Analyst Reports

Vague Knowledge: Evidence from Analyst Reports

URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2505.12269v3
Date: Sat, 24 May 2025 22:50:59 GMT
Title: Vague Knowledge: Evidence from Analyst Reports
Authors: Kerry Xiao, Amy Zang,
Abstract summary: We argue that language, with differing ability to convey vague information, plays an important but less-known role in representing subjective expectations.<n>We find that in their reports, analysts include useful information in linguistic expressions but not numerical forecasts.
Score: 0.0
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Abstract: People in the real world often possess vague knowledge of future payoffs, for which quantification is not feasible or desirable. We argue that language, with differing ability to convey vague information, plays an important but less-known role in representing subjective expectations. Empirically, we find that in their reports, analysts include useful information in linguistic expressions but not numerical forecasts. Specifically, the textual tone of analyst reports has predictive power for forecast errors and subsequent revisions in numerical forecasts, and this relation becomes stronger when analyst's language is vaguer, when uncertainty is higher, and when analysts are busier. Overall, our theory and evidence suggest that some useful information is vaguely known and only communicated through language.

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