LLM Economist: Large Population Models and Mechanism Design in Multi-Agent Generative Simulacra

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2507.15815v1
• Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2025 17:21:14 GMT
• Title: LLM Economist: Large Population Models and Mechanism Design in Multi-Agent Generative Simulacra
• Authors: Seth Karten, Wenzhe Li, Zihan Ding, Samuel Kleiner, Yu Bai, Chi Jin,
• Abstract summary: We present a novel framework that uses agent-based modeling to design and assess economic policies.<n>At the lower level, bounded rational worker agents choose labor supply to maximize text-based utility functions learned in-context.<n>At the upper level, a planner agent employs in-context reinforcement learning to propose piecewise-linear marginal tax schedules anchored to the current U.S. federal brackets.
• Score: 29.627070781534698
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: We present the LLM Economist, a novel framework that uses agent-based modeling to design and assess economic policies in strategic environments with hierarchical decision-making. At the lower level, bounded rational worker agents -- instantiated as persona-conditioned prompts sampled from U.S. Census-calibrated income and demographic statistics -- choose labor supply to maximize text-based utility functions learned in-context. At the upper level, a planner agent employs in-context reinforcement learning to propose piecewise-linear marginal tax schedules anchored to the current U.S. federal brackets. This construction endows economic simulacra with three capabilities requisite for credible fiscal experimentation: (i) optimization of heterogeneous utilities, (ii) principled generation of large, demographically realistic agent populations, and (iii) mechanism design -- the ultimate nudging problem -- expressed entirely in natural language. Experiments with populations of up to one hundred interacting agents show that the planner converges near Stackelberg equilibria that improve aggregate social welfare relative to Saez solutions, while a periodic, persona-level voting procedure furthers these gains under decentralized governance. These results demonstrate that large language model-based agents can jointly model, simulate, and govern complex economic systems, providing a tractable test bed for policy evaluation at the societal scale to help build better civilizations.

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