HyPV-LEAD: Proactive Early-Warning of Cryptocurrency Anomalies through Data-Driven Structural-Temporal Modeling

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.03260v1
• Date: Wed, 03 Sep 2025 12:23:38 GMT
• Title: HyPV-LEAD: Proactive Early-Warning of Cryptocurrency Anomalies through Data-Driven Structural-Temporal Modeling
• Abstract summary: Abnormal cryptocurrency transactions pose escalating risks to financial integrity.<n>Existing approaches are predominantly model-centric and post hoc.<n>This paper introduces HyPV-LEAD, a data-driven early-warning framework.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
• Abstract: Abnormal cryptocurrency transactions - such as mixing services, fraudulent transfers, and pump-and-dump operations -- pose escalating risks to financial integrity but remain notoriously difficult to detect due to class imbalance, temporal volatility, and complex network dependencies. Existing approaches are predominantly model-centric and post hoc, flagging anomalies only after they occur and thus offering limited preventive value. This paper introduces HyPV-LEAD (Hyperbolic Peak-Valley Lead-time Enabled Anomaly Detection), a data-driven early-warning framework that explicitly incorporates lead time into anomaly detection. Unlike prior methods, HyPV-LEAD integrates three innovations: (1) window-horizon modeling to guarantee actionable lead-time alerts, (2) Peak-Valley (PV) sampling to mitigate class imbalance while preserving temporal continuity, and (3) hyperbolic embedding to capture the hierarchical and scale-free properties of blockchain transaction networks. Empirical evaluation on large-scale Bitcoin transaction data demonstrates that HyPV-LEAD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a PR-AUC of 0.9624 with significant gains in precision and recall. Ablation studies further confirm that each component - PV sampling, hyperbolic embedding, and structural-temporal modeling - provides complementary benefits, with the full framework delivering the highest performance. By shifting anomaly detection from reactive classification to proactive early-warning, HyPV-LEAD establishes a robust foundation for real-time risk management, anti-money laundering (AML) compliance, and financial security in dynamic blockchain environments.

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