Split Conformal Prediction in the Function Space with Neural Operators

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04623v1
• Date: Thu, 04 Sep 2025 19:12:04 GMT
• Title: Split Conformal Prediction in the Function Space with Neural Operators
• Authors: David Millard, Lars Lindemann, Ali Baheri,
• Abstract summary: Conformal prediction offers finite-sample guarantees in finite-dimensional spaces.<n>It does not directly extend to function-valued outputs.<n>This work extends split conformal prediction to function spaces following a two step method.
• Score: 7.619100818009453
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Uncertainty quantification for neural operators remains an open problem in the infinite-dimensional setting due to the lack of finite-sample coverage guarantees over functional outputs. While conformal prediction offers finite-sample guarantees in finite-dimensional spaces, it does not directly extend to function-valued outputs. Existing approaches (Gaussian processes, Bayesian neural networks, and quantile-based operators) require strong distributional assumptions or yield conservative coverage. This work extends split conformal prediction to function spaces following a two step method. We first establish finite-sample coverage guarantees in a finite-dimensional space using a discretization map in the output function space. Then these guarantees are lifted to the function-space by considering the asymptotic convergence as the discretization is refined. To characterize the effect of resolution, we decompose the conformal radius into discretization, calibration, and misspecification components. This decomposition motivates a regression-based correction to transfer calibration across resolutions. Additionally, we propose two diagnostic metrics (conformal ensemble score and internal agreement) to quantify forecast degradation in autoregressive settings. Empirical results show that our method maintains calibrated coverage with less variation under resolution shifts and achieves better coverage in super-resolution tasks.

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