Extracting Uncertainty Estimates from Mixtures of Experts for Semantic Segmentation

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04816v1
• Date: Fri, 05 Sep 2025 05:30:53 GMT
• Title: Extracting Uncertainty Estimates from Mixtures of Experts for Semantic Segmentation
• Authors: Svetlana Pavlitska, Beyza Keskin, Alwin Faßbender, Christian Hubschneider, J. Marius Zöllner,
• Abstract summary: We show that well-calibrated predictive uncertainty estimates can be extracted from a mixture of experts (MoE) without architectural modifications.<n>Our results show that MoEs yield more reliable uncertainty estimates than ensembles in terms of conditional correctness metrics.<n>Our experiments on the Cityscapes dataset suggest that increasing the number of experts can further enhance uncertainty calibration.
• Score: 9.817102014355617
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Estimating accurate and well-calibrated predictive uncertainty is important for enhancing the reliability of computer vision models, especially in safety-critical applications like traffic scene perception. While ensemble methods are commonly used to quantify uncertainty by combining multiple models, a mixture of experts (MoE) offers an efficient alternative by leveraging a gating network to dynamically weight expert predictions based on the input. Building on the promising use of MoEs for semantic segmentation in our previous works, we show that well-calibrated predictive uncertainty estimates can be extracted from MoEs without architectural modifications. We investigate three methods to extract predictive uncertainty estimates: predictive entropy, mutual information, and expert variance. We evaluate these methods for an MoE with two experts trained on a semantical split of the A2D2 dataset. Our results show that MoEs yield more reliable uncertainty estimates than ensembles in terms of conditional correctness metrics under out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Additionally, we evaluate routing uncertainty computed via gate entropy and find that simple gating mechanisms lead to better calibration of routing uncertainty estimates than more complex classwise gates. Finally, our experiments on the Cityscapes dataset suggest that increasing the number of experts can further enhance uncertainty calibration. Our code is available at https://github.com/KASTEL-MobilityLab/mixtures-of-experts/.

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