Incorporating Multivariate Consistency in ML-Based Weather Forecasting with Latent-space Constraints

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04006v1
• Date: Sun, 05 Oct 2025 02:55:04 GMT
• Title: Incorporating Multivariate Consistency in ML-Based Weather Forecasting with Latent-space Constraints
• Abstract summary: Data-driven machine learning (ML) models have recently shown promise in surpassing traditional physics-based approaches for weather forecasting.<n>Most ML-based forecast models treat reanalysis as the truth and are trained under variable-specific loss weighting.<n>Over long time horizons, the forecasts become blurry and physically unrealistic under rollout training.<n>We show that rollout training with latent-space constraints improves long-term forecast skill and better preserves fine-scale structures and physical realism.
• Score: 21.499040370144552
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Data-driven machine learning (ML) models have recently shown promise in surpassing traditional physics-based approaches for weather forecasting, leading to a so-called second revolution in weather forecasting. However, most ML-based forecast models treat reanalysis as the truth and are trained under variable-specific loss weighting, ignoring their physical coupling and spatial structure. Over long time horizons, the forecasts become blurry and physically unrealistic under rollout training. To address this, we reinterpret model training as a weak-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation (WC-4DVar) problem, treating reanalysis data as imperfect observations. This allows the loss function to incorporate reanalysis error covariance and capture multivariate dependencies. In practice, we compute the loss in a latent space learned by an autoencoder (AE), where the reanalysis error covariance becomes approximately diagonal, thus avoiding the need to explicitly model it in the high-dimensional model space. We show that rollout training with latent-space constraints improves long-term forecast skill and better preserves fine-scale structures and physical realism compared to training with model-space loss. Finally, we extend this framework to accommodate heterogeneous data sources, enabling the forecast model to be trained jointly on reanalysis and multi-source observations within a unified theoretical formulation.

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