Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification with Anchored Ensembles for Robust EV Power Consumption Prediction

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2511.06538v1
• Date: Sun, 09 Nov 2025 20:49:42 GMT
• Title: Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification with Anchored Ensembles for Robust EV Power Consumption Prediction
• Authors: Ghazal Farhani, Taufiq Rahman, Kieran Humphries,
• Abstract summary: EV power estimation underpins range prediction and energy management, yet practitioners need both point accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty.<n>We propose an anchored-ensemble Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with a Student-t likelihood that jointly captures uncertainty.<n>Our model attains strong accuracy: RMSE 3.36 +/- 1.10, MAE 2.21 +/- 0.89, R-squared = 0.93 +/- 0.02, explained variance 0.93 +/- 0.02, and delivers well-calibrated uncertainty bands with near-nominal coverage.
• Score: 0.8602553195689513
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Abstract: Accurate EV power estimation underpins range prediction and energy management, yet practitioners need both point accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty. We propose an anchored-ensemble Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with a Student-t likelihood that jointly captures epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty. Anchoring imposes a Gaussian weight prior (MAP training), yielding posterior-like diversity without test-time sampling, while the t-head provides heavy-tailed robustness and closed-form prediction intervals. Using vehicle-kinematic time series (e.g., speed, motor RPM), our model attains strong accuracy: RMSE 3.36 +/- 1.10, MAE 2.21 +/- 0.89, R-squared = 0.93 +/- 0.02, explained variance 0.93 +/- 0.02, and delivers well-calibrated uncertainty bands with near-nominal coverage. Against competitive baselines (Student-t MC dropout; quantile regression with/without anchoring), our method matches or improves log-scores while producing sharper intervals at the same coverage. Crucially for real-time deployment, inference is a single deterministic pass per ensemble member (or a weight-averaged collapse), eliminating Monte Carlo latency. The result is a compact, theoretically grounded estimator that couples accuracy, calibration, and systems efficiency, enabling reliable range estimation and decision-making for production EV energy management.

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