Towards a Science of Scaling Agent Systems

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.08296v2
• Date: Wed, 17 Dec 2025 02:41:22 GMT
• Title: Towards a Science of Scaling Agent Systems
• Authors: Yubin Kim, Ken Gu, Chanwoo Park, Chunjong Park, Samuel Schmidgall, A. Ali Heydari, Yao Yan, Zhihan Zhang, Yuchen Zhuang, Mark Malhotra, Paul Pu Liang, Hae Won Park, Yuzhe Yang, Xuhai Xu, Yilun Du, Shwetak Patel, Tim Althoff, Daniel McDuff, Xin Liu,
• Abstract summary: We formalize a definition for agent evaluation and characterize scaling laws as the interplay between agent quantity, coordination structure, modelic, and task properties.<n>We derive a predictive model using coordination metrics, that cross-validated R2=0, enabling prediction on unseen task domains.<n>We identify three effects: (1) a tool-coordination trade-off: under fixed computational budgets, tool-heavy tasks suffer disproportionately from multi-agent overhead, and (2) a capability saturation: coordination yields diminishing or negative returns once single-agent baselines exceed 45%.
• Score: 79.64446272302287
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Agents, language model-based systems that are capable of reasoning, planning, and acting are becoming the dominant paradigm for real-world AI applications. Despite this widespread adoption, the principles that determine their performance remain underexplored. We address this by deriving quantitative scaling principles for agent systems. We first formalize a definition for agentic evaluation and characterize scaling laws as the interplay between agent quantity, coordination structure, model capability, and task properties. We evaluate this across four benchmarks: Finance-Agent, BrowseComp-Plus, PlanCraft, and Workbench. With five canonical agent architectures (Single-Agent and four Multi-Agent Systems: Independent, Centralized, Decentralized, Hybrid), instantiated across three LLM families, we perform a controlled evaluation spanning 180 configurations. We derive a predictive model using coordination metrics, that achieves cross-validated R^2=0.524, enabling prediction on unseen task domains. We identify three effects: (1) a tool-coordination trade-off: under fixed computational budgets, tool-heavy tasks suffer disproportionately from multi-agent overhead. (2) a capability saturation: coordination yields diminishing or negative returns once single-agent baselines exceed ~45%. (3) topology-dependent error amplification: independent agents amplify errors 17.2x, while centralized coordination contains this to 4.4x. Centralized coordination improves performance by 80.8% on parallelizable tasks, while decentralized coordination excels on web navigation (+9.2% vs. +0.2%). Yet for sequential reasoning tasks, every multi-agent variants degraded performance by 39-70%. The framework predicts the optimal coordination strategy for 87% of held-out configurations. Out-of-sample validation on GPT-5.2, achieves MAE=0.071 and confirms four of five scaling principles generalize to unseen frontier models.

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