Skillful Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Events with a Multi-Sphere Coupled Probabilistic Model

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.12545v1
• Date: Sun, 14 Dec 2025 04:28:51 GMT
• Title: Skillful Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Events with a Multi-Sphere Coupled Probabilistic Model
• Authors: Bin Mu, Yuxuan Chen, Shijin Yuan, Bo Qin, Hao Guo,
• Abstract summary: TianXing-S2S is a multi-sphere coupled probabilistic model for global S2S daily ensemble forecast.<n>Our model achieves skillful subseasonal prediction of extreme events including heat waves and anomalous precipitation.
• Score: 15.895958611071286
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of extreme events is critical for resource planning and disaster mitigation under accelerating climate change. However, such predictions remain challenging due to complex multi-sphere interactions and intrinsic atmospheric uncertainty. Here we present TianXing-S2S, a multi-sphere coupled probabilistic model for global S2S daily ensemble forecast. TianXing-S2S first encodes diverse multi-sphere predictors into a compact latent space, then employs a diffusion model to generate daily ensemble forecasts. A novel coupling module based on optimal transport (OT) is incorporated in the denoiser to optimize the interactions between atmospheric and multi-sphere boundary conditions. Across key atmospheric variables, TianXing-S2S outperforms both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) S2S system and FuXi-S2S in 45-day daily-mean ensemble forecasts at 1.5 resolution. Our model achieves skillful subseasonal prediction of extreme events including heat waves and anomalous precipitation, identifying soil moisture as a critical precursor signal. Furthermore, we demonstrate that TianXing-S2S can generate stable rollout forecasts up to 180 days, establishing a robust framework for S2S research in a warming world.

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