Efficiently Estimating Data Efficiency for Language Model Fine-tuning
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.24991v1
- Date: Wed, 31 Dec 2025 17:37:29 GMT
- Title: Efficiently Estimating Data Efficiency for Language Model Fine-tuning
- Authors: Gyung Hyun Je, Colin Raffel,
- Abstract summary: Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate reasonable zero-shot capability across many downstream tasks.<n>The number of fine-tuning examples needed to achieve a desired level of performance is often unknown.<n>This motivates the need for methods to predict a task's data efficiency without requiring incremental annotation.
- Score: 25.40444080279801
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate reasonable zero-shot capability across many downstream tasks, fine-tuning is a common practice to improve their performance. However, a task's data efficiency--i.e., the number of fine-tuning examples needed to achieve a desired level of performance--is often unknown, resulting in costly cycles of incremental annotation and retraining. Indeed, we demonstrate across a curated set of 30 specialized tasks that performant LLMs may struggle zero-shot but can attain stronger performance after fine-tuning. This motivates the need for methods to predict a task's data efficiency without requiring incremental annotation. After introducing a concrete metric that quantifies a task's data efficiency, we propose using the gradient cosine similarity of low-confidence examples to predict data efficiency based on a small number of labeled samples. We validate our approach on a diverse set of tasks with varying data efficiencies, attaining 8.6% error in overall data efficiency prediction and typically eliminating hundreds of unnecessary annotations on each task. Our experiment results and implementation code are available on GitHub.
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