Position: Certifiable State Integrity in Cyber-Physical Systems -- Why Modular Sovereignty Solves the Plasticity-Stability Paradox

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2601.21249v1
• Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 04:10:58 GMT
• Title: Position: Certifiable State Integrity in Cyber-Physical Systems -- Why Modular Sovereignty Solves the Plasticity-Stability Paradox
• Abstract summary: Recent evidence shows that fine-tuning time-series foundation models induces forgetting catastrophic, degrading performance on prior regimes.<n>This position paper argues that the plasticity-stability paradox cannot be fully resolved by global parameter updates.<n>Instead, we advocate a Modular Sovereignty paradigm: a library of compact, frozen regime-specific specialists combined via uncertainty-aware blending.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: The machine learning community has achieved remarkable success with universal foundation models for time-series and physical dynamics, largely overcoming earlier approximation barriers in smooth or slowly varying regimes through scale and specialized architectures. However, deploying these monolithic models in safety-critical Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), governed by non-stationary lifecycle dynamics and strict reliability requirements, reveals persistent challenges. Recent evidence shows that fine-tuning time-series foundation models induces catastrophic forgetting, degrading performance on prior regimes. Standard models continue to exhibit residual spectral bias, smoothing high-frequency discontinuities characteristic of incipient faults, while their opacity hinders formal verification and traceability demanded by safety standards (e.g., ISO 26262, IEC 61508). This position paper argues that the plasticity-stability paradox cannot be fully resolved by global parameter updates (whether via offline fine-tuning or online adaptation). Instead, we advocate a Modular Sovereignty paradigm: a library of compact, frozen regime-specific specialists combined via uncertainty-aware blending, which we term "HYDRA" (Hierarchical uncertaintY-aware Dynamics for Rapidly-Adapting systems). This paradigm ensures regime-conditional validity, rigorous disentanglement of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and modular auditability, offering a certifiable path for robust state integrity across the CPS lifecycle.

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